*****4:00PM LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY 1/23 STORM UPDATE***** (yes it took me over an hour to assemble this forecast update) ALL HANDS ON DECK-(Whatever the heck that means) as a major winter storm takes aim at the northeast corridor....the good-old megalopolis... Can you imagine being married to me during a time like this???/ My poor wife..she is just the absolute best! Just love her so much....more than snow even....yowza! *****IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS TO HEAD OUT OF THE METRO AREA TOMORROW MORNING, YOU MUST MAKE ALTERNATIVE PLANS. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS WITHIN THE METRO AREA TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON YOUR LOCATION. *****SUNDAY WILL BE FINE*****(Cold yes...but no new precip) *****MONDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A NEW SWATH OF SNOW, HOWEVER RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS TO BE HEADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. (So.Pennsylvania/Maryland/Delaware/Central-Northern Va./W.Virginia) I will keep an eye on it still, however. OK BACKTRACKING TO THE STORM: *****Winter Storm Warnings have been posted by the NWS for northern Fairfield/northern New Haven/all of Putnam counties. *****Winter Weather Advisory elsewhere throughout the metro area. *****Winter Storm Warnings continue up through most of central New England up to southeast New Hampshire... YES! A BIG storm, and YES BUST POTENTIAL EXTREMELY HIGH.... DISCUSS: A small surface low pressure over the southeast is being supported by a vigorous upper air NRG packet. The low now looks like it wants to take a CLOSER TO THE COAST PATH. Moving from the Virginia Capes to just east of Cape Cod by tomorrow night. W/o a cold Arctic high pressure feeding the low, and there is not one, the storm will have trouble producing all snow. It will not, however, with the upper air NRG and passing so close, have trouble producing COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION, AS IT GOES THROUGH BOMBOGENESIS between Atlantic City and Cape Cod.... LATEST THINKING: #1) Timing- Moving in from midnight to 4am. (south to north). Moving out during the afternoon. From early afternoon down south to late afternoon up north. #2) Intensity- This is the area of concern. I am seeing signs of a much wetter system. QPF amounts will be near an inch for most-if not more! That is a whole bunch. #3) Type- All snow will move up from the south overnight. Then the atmosphere will warm up enough to bring sleet, freezing rain, and maybe even plain rain (only right along the coast) in for a bit. Inland north of the usual mix-line (see map) it will be mostly snow with some sleet and or freezing rain. *****REMEMBER THE HARDER THE PRECIPITATION IS THE BETTER CHANCE OF IT BEING A HEAVY WET SNOW.....****** MY FEELINGS: INLAND: I SEE A PLOWABLE SNOW/ICE EVENT. ACTUALLY I AM WORRIED? THAT THIS COULD TURN INTO AN ALL-OUT SNOWSTORM OF 8+...IF NOT 10+.... AROUND THE WESTCHESTER/SOUTHERN ROCKLAND/SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD/INTERIOR NORTHEAST JERSEY AREA: MY THINKING IS BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN. THE HARDER THE PRECCIP THE MORE SNOW. ICE AND SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE IN THE 2-5 IF NOT MORE RANGE...WORRIED HERE THAT THIS COULD BUST. AT LEAST A SHOVE-ABLE SNOW...IF NOT MORE.... COAST: AGAIN BACK AND FORTH, HOWEVER IT COULD MIX WITH RAIN...KEEPING #S DOWN. EVEN HERE WE NEED TO WATCH FOR A BUST POTENTIAL...... *******YES...this one has me VERY worried. ******** *******YES...i will do an update tonight around midnight. OK?******* IMAGE #1) SNOW MAP: FOLKS THOSE #S MAY INDEED HAVE TO BE INCREASED.....REMEMBER ADD ICE TO THIS AS WELL.....WHAT A MESS!!!!!! IMAGE #2) HI TECH-SUPER TOP SECRET EURO SKEW-T DIAGRAM.THESE SHOW THE PREDICTED TEMPERATURE/DP AS THE PRECIP DROPS FROM THE CLOUDS TO THE GROUND. i DREW THE 0*c (FREEZING LINE) AS THE YELLOW LINE. NOTICE HOW THE PRECIP STAYS RIGHT AT THE 0*c LINE THE BOTTOM FEW THOUSAND FEET.....SNOW OR ICE?????/ WOW WHAT A FIGHT. REMEMBER HEAVIER PRECIP FAVORS SNOW....... BE BACK AT MIDNIGHT.....SEE YOU ALL THEN. I HOPE.
Posted on: Fri, 23 Jan 2015 22:07:00 +0000
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