#AMarshallPlanforCrimea On March 2, the day after Russian troops started fanning out across Crimea, the Chinese Foreign Ministry noted: There is a good reason for why events in Ukraine have progressed to where they are today. It is not hard to understand why China feels itself in a tight spot over the situation in Ukraine, where Russia has responded to the collapse of the presidency of its ally Viktor Yanukovych in late February and the formation of a new, pro-Western government by exerting Russian military control over the Crimean peninsula. China and Russia may have been estranged during the latter part of the Cold War, and only resolved their own tense border issues in 2008, but the two nations have long found common cause over the issue of state sovereignty. For the last decade, Russia and China have often tag-teamed at the U.N. to block Western busybodies from getting involved in smaller countries internal crises. In the 2000s, when China was defending Sudan against Western criticism over Darfur, Russia provided political cover. Over the last three years, China has backed up Russia in its efforts to keep the U.N. from pressuring the Assad regime in Syria. Yet, today, Chinas usual partner in defending the inviolability of state sovereignty is the very country whose troops are now controlling Crimea. And a prolonged crisis in the Ukraine could be bad for the global economy, especially if there are sanctions and counter-sanctions between Russia and the West, just at a time when Chinas own economy is slowing. No wonder Chinas responses have been so convoluted. Yet behind the diplomatic parsing, there are several ways in which the Ukraine crisis could work out very well for China. In terms of both grand strategy and tactics, the showdown in Ukraine has the potential to play into Chinas hands. In terms of both grand strategy and tactics, the showdown in Ukraine has the potential to play into Chinas hands. For the United States, one of the big long-term risks is that Ukraine ends up pushing Russia and China much closer together. Sensing itself under pressure in Asia over the last two years, Beijing has been casting around for political support. The first foreign trip that Xi Jinping made on taking over as Chinas president in March 2013 was to Moscow. And since he returned to office nearly two years ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been happy to play nice with China as he indulges his anti-Western posturing. In October, the two countries signed a large number of energy deals, including an agreement for Russia to supply $85 billion of oil; after years of talks, they are also getting close to an agreement on a major gas pipeline. Beyond the booming business ties, both countries believe that chipping away at the foundations of U.S. power serves their interests. One of Washingtons long-term geopolitical priorities should be driving a wedge between Moscow and Beijing, to prevent the development of a stronger relationship. Yet an Obama administration campaign to isolate Russia economically and diplomatically would almost certainly invite Putin to look to Beijing for political support. At a more mundane level, the Ukraine crisis also means that U.S. President Barack Obama is almost inevitably going to have less time to devote to his Asia pivot -- his strategy for dealing with a rising China. After much fanfare on its launch in 2011, including Obamas announcement that the United States is here to stay in the Pacific during a trip to Australia, there has been plenty of criticism in the region that the administration has been distracted by the fire-fighting it has been doing in the Middle East. John Kerry has traveled five times to the region since becoming secretary of state in Feb. 2013, but he has made more than double that number of trips to the Middle East during the same period. The cancellation of Obamas October 2013 Asia trip because of the government shut-down was a major own-goal. For months, the Chinese have been telling their neighbors that the unreliable United States has once again become less interested in the region. In the weeks before the Russian intervention in Crimea, the administration has been consciously trying to up its game in Asia, ahead of Obamas April visit to Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippines. In February, Danny Russel, assistant secretary of state for East Asia, said China had created uncertainty, insecurity and instability in the region by its behavior in the South China Sea. Yet if Russia annexes Crimea, and is seen to not pay too high a price, some in China will take that as a green light to push their own territorial claims even harder. If Putin can call the Wests bluff, whats to stop China? That said, there is nothing inevitable about a closer Sino-Russian alliance. As Chinas influence grows, Russia could end up seeing Beijing as much as a rival as a partner. Putins Crimea incursion is motivated by his desire to protect Russias sphere of influence to its west, where it feels under threat from Europe. But he is also intent on maintaining Russian influence in Central Asia, where China is the long-term challenger. Over the last five years, Chinese presence in Central Asia has increased dramatically, the product of huge energy deals, extensive oil and gas pipelines, and financial support. The power dynamics of China and Russia are also very different. Chinas ambitions are those of a great power on the rise: the Crimea takeover is the lashing out of a leader trying to hang on to some leverage in Ukraine that is rapidly disappearing. #The best way to get Crimea back is for Ukraine to become a prosperous democracy with the West’s help. The West’s other task and the best strategy for restoring Crimea to Ukraine is to help it. The European Union has begun to ease tariffs on Ukrainian goods: that is a start, but it must go much further, and fast, with financial support to stave off bankruptcy and then, in tandem with the IMF, to rebuild the state. Obama spend a lot more of his time in office focusing on Europe; trying to boost the relationship with Germany and reassuring allies in Eastern Europe who have felt neglected. With luck and time, the people of Crimea will look north at a prosperous democracy and push to rejoin it. Part of the trouble with Mr Putin is the studied asymmetry of his tactics. He gleefully stoops to thuggery insulting foreign leaders, harassing diplomats, assassinating critics, and, now, invading his neighbour and pretending he hasn’t knowing full well that Western leaders cannot copy him. But the West has a powerful tool of its own that he can never match: a way of life, based on rules and freedom, that people all over the world crave. That includes Russians, many of whom long to escape Mr Putin’s corrupt and increasingly repressive authoritarianism, and especially, Ukrainians, some of whom have recently died in the streets in their quest for better government. Helping Ukrainians to achieve that goal is the surest way to resist and ultimately reverse Mr Putin’s crimes. Well, I am not to conclude from here, it’s your prerogative to make good final assumptions. A little hint, passenger Chustrak Oleg and Deineka Sergii (Ukraine) were in MH370. The biggest number targeted passengers, China! U.S Investigators suspect that MH370 could have flown on for hundreds of additional miles under conditions that remain murky. MH370 has been probably hijacked by an AWACS plane. AWACS would have shut down any transponder for a plane kidnapping anyway. In Crimea, clock clicks down now to a weekend referendum, on whether it will secede from Ukraine and become a part of Russia. The best way to get Crimea back is for Ukraine to become a prosperous democracy with the West’s help!
Posted on: Sat, 15 Mar 2014 00:12:30 +0000
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