-ENC-Extreme Weather Team Extreme Weather Lab Daily Forecast With Intellicast Weather Technology- 10/12/14 Forecast Warnings & Watches Picture: 2 -HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK- Picture: 3 ___________________________________ -Current Radar- Pictures: 4 Current radar showes Showers and thunderstorms over the western part of NC moving east. These storms are not severe. The thunderstorms that cased the Tornado Warning and confirmed Funnel clouds has move of shore and into South Carolina. The front has cleared everyone in the east except extreme southern countys. Satellite showes partly cloudy and high clouds over most od eastern NC. Lower thicker clouds are still to our west moving east. This should lead to light rain drizzel for your Sunday morning. If you are going to the flea market, family get together, church, or just working in yard you might want to take your umbrella or jackets with you. Current Conditions: Picture: 5 -Current National Weather- Picture: 6 -NC Weather- ...SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN DISSIPATE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND CROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK. -SUNDAY FORECAST- Picture: 7 -Short Term Forecast- Picture: 8, 9 THROUGH 6AM COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF REGION NOW WITH LAST BATCH OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS PASSING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN COAST. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH PATCHY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EXPECTED WITH SATURATED LAYER ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE LOW 55 TO 60 WELL INLAND AND MID TO UPR 60S ON THE BEACHES. .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY... QUITE A TURNAROUND FROM SATURDAYS VERY WARM AND SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THICK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT IN THE PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW ON SUNDAY SO EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDS AND COOL LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY. __________________________________ -Extended- PICTURE 10. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE REGION BRINGING NORTH EAST FLOW AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNING AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER. WILL MAINTAIN 20 CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST FOR MONDAY. SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AS A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. 12Z GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED QUITE A BIT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE GFS MODEL HAS TRENDED SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF IN DEVELOPING A LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. FORECAST NOW SLOWS DOWN THE PRECIP SLIGHTLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FRIDAY. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUES NIGHT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR AND HELICITY. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ... THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE FRI INTO SAT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AGAIN PUSH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BUILDING 1390-1400 METERS...THEN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS THICKNESSES LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TUES WITH LOW TO MID 70S WED THROUGH SAT. -Thats your Daily forecast from - ENC-Extreme Weather Team Extreme Weather Lab- LIKE AND SHARE
Posted on: Sun, 12 Oct 2014 07:38:49 +0000
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