#ESLONECologne [Quarter-Finals] : here are our predictions about the 3rd day of ESL One! Before commenting please READ THIS POST about the ESL VETO SYSTEM: goo.gl/bk4evg Please note that the following betting predictions are different from our Pickem Challenge picks. You can find out more about the #PickEmChallenge - Day3 at the bottom of this post. #QF1 • [Fnatic - NaVI] : This is a quite interesting match, and it will be probably way closer than expected, Fnatic played well (but not great) until now, currently they reached QuarterFinals just because Olof and Krimz did most of the job, while the rest of the team didn’t make anything out-of-ordinary. In particular JW played far below his usual level. About the new maps Fnatic looked well trained in both de_cobblestone and de_overapass, while on de_cache they should be already fine since some time. NaVi to the other hand performed not so great, the whole team looks a bit slow and chunky during re-routings and in particular GuardiaN, despite his quite decent score, played below his average, failing many decisive shots and putting his own team in danger several times on dust2, due questionable personal choices. However a bad day may happens to everyone, and we expect him to step-up tomorrow. Also note that NaVi are one of the few teams that until now played only on Classic maps, then they may surprise on the new ones. About the Veto session, as we wrote in the sticky post the system used in PlayOffs is far different from the Groupstage one. In our opinion Fnatic will ban de_dust2 and will pick de_cobblestone, while NaVi may veto de_nuke and pick de_inferno. Then the picked maps will be: de_inferno, de_cobblestone and the last one will be randomly drawn between: de_cache, de_overpass and de_mirage. If it goes so Fnatic should be slightly better on de_cobblestone/de_cache/de_overpass, while both teams are aligned on de_inferno and de_mirage. Our odds cannot be very accurate due the random Veto session, anyway we believe that Fnatic are very slightly advantaged, BUT current CSGL odds are totally skewed, then our pick is an ICB on NaVi. #QF2 • [Epsilon - Dignitas] : Very risky match, Epsilon is actually one of the most solid teams of the bunch, their teamplay looks really fine, and they are really a pleasure to watch, additionally they looked really consistent also on the new maps. Both Shox and KioShiMa are individually doing well, additionally the rest of the team is playing like an orchestra and consequently they managed to sort out basically every kind of situation they found until now. Dignitas is playing in a way a bit similar to Fnatic, a part of the team is doing just their “homeworks” while the rest is carrying pretty hard. Historically Dignitas always had some issues in dealing with new maps, and until now during GroupStage they played just on classic ones, then we do not really know their full potential. About the Veto session, as we wrote in the sticky post the system used in PlayOffs is far different from the Groupstage one. In our opinion Epsilon will ban de_nuke and will pick de_cobblestone, while Dignitas may veto de_cache and pick de_mirage. Then the picked maps will be: de_mirage, de_cobblestone and the last one will be randomly drawn between: de_dust2, de_overpass and de_inferno. If it goes so Epsilon should be slightly better on de_cobblestone/de_overpass, while Dignitas are favored on de_mirage and both teams are aligned on de_inferno and de_dust2. Our odds cannot be very accurate due the random Veto session, anyway this is basically a 50/50 match, and we believe that Epsilon may be very slightly advantaged, but the risk factor is pretty high, then we advice to SKIP. #QF3 • [LDLC - VP] : VirtusPro are really on point on the new maps, their match against iBP on de_cache was simply beautiful and also on de_overpass they performed in a really amazing way. As team they played pretty fine until now, and their loss against Fnatic is not really a their fault since it has been mostly a personal achievement of the Krimz+Olof dream duo. LDLC until now played just on the Classic maps, then we do not really know how they’ll perform on cache/cobblestone/overpass, but for sure matching the VP performance on these maps won’t be an easy task. We do not really consider their victory against LC as a real achievement, but what they did against NaVi is for sure a sign that they are a real threat. About the Veto session, as we wrote in the sticky post the system used in PlayOffs is far different from the Groupstage one. In our opinion LDLC will ban de_overpass and will pick de_dust2, while VirtusPro may veto de_cobblestone and pick de_cache. Then the picked maps will be: de_cache, de_dust2 and the last one will be randomly drawn between: de_nuke, de_inferno and de_mirage. If it goes so LDLC should be slightly better on de_dust2, while VP are favored on de_cache/de_mirage and both teams are aligned on de_inferno and de_nuke. Our odds cannot be very accurate due the random Veto session, anyway we believe that VirtusPro are very slightly advantaged, BUT current CSGL odds are totally skewed, then our pick is an ICB on LDLC. #QF4 • [NiP - Cloud9] : In my opinion this is the most interesting match of the day, C9 played a couple of totally outstanding matches, and so far they are the most entertaining team to watch, then I really hope to watch them moving to SemiFinals. The whole team is doing pretty well, even Shroud that previously looked a bit shaky, now found himself and started performing nicely. However the real great thing about this team is their attitude, they are always smiling and acting nicely, and this is really a spot-on compared to the weird behavior of other NA teams such as iBP. I do not really trust NiP, they always play not so great during GroupStage, but then as soon as they move to Playoffs they start playing in a totally different way. Until now they basically played 4v5, both Get_Right and F0rest played widely under their standards, and even our beloved Fiffy had a better GroupStage than them. However they are still one of the best teams in the world, and if they’ll manage to switch on again they have all the cards for moving to SemiFinals. About the Veto session, as we wrote in the sticky post the system used in PlayOffs is far different from the Groupstage one. In our opinion Cloud9 will ban de_overpass and will pick de_cache, while NiP may veto de_mirage and pick de_nuke. Then the picked maps will be: de_cache, de_nuke and the last one will be randomly drawn between: de_dust2, de_cobblestone and de_inferno. If it goes so Cloud9 should be slightly better on de_cache/de_dust2, while NiP are favored on de_nuke/de_cobblestone and both teams are aligned on de_inferno. Our odds cannot be very accurate due the random Veto session, , however they are around 55/45 in favor of Cloud9, with a risk factor of 8.5, and we suggest a Low bet on them. ================================== #PickEmChallenge : Please note that our picks do not match with our predictions, because we do not consider ICBs for the Pick’Em Challenge. You can find our picks here: i.imgur/rh16bVm.png ================================== #Twitter → twitter/csgo_guru #Donations → goo.gl/4fdu2g
Posted on: Sat, 16 Aug 2014 04:52:36 +0000
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