** El Niño Update ** There has been a lot of talk about El Niño over the past several months and as many of us know, it CAN bring much of California above normal rainfall during these years, but not always. The upcoming winter forecasts are now starting to hit the press and are already forecasting a dry winter for Nor Cal. Forecasts such as these are inherently inaccurate. They tend to under or over forecast the upcoming season and is basically a guessing game. So, rather than basing our outlook on guesswork, lets look at some historical facts. First of all, history tells us that strong El Niños tend to bring above average potential for a wet year for Nor Cal. Weak to moderate El Niños however generally favor the southern half of the state with near to above average rainfall with less to the north. I did a little research on past El Niño events and their outcome. Here is what I found: Over the past 64 years (1950-2014), there have been 22 El Niño events. Half have brought above normal rainfall to the northern part of California and below normal the other half. 6 of the 22 have been strong El Niño events . Out of these, they brought above normal rain to Nor Cal 4 of the 6 seasons. But, when examining the weak and moderate El Niño years, 6 of the 16 years received below normal rainfall, 5 near normal and 5 above normal. So, to summarize, if we look at the historical records since 1950. With a weak to moderate El Niño as we are currently experiencing, the northern half of CA has only a 31% chance of above average rain this upcoming winter, BUT, there is 63% chance that we may see at least average rainfall. That is what 64 years of historical facts tell us. Of course, we still have a little time for El Niño to strengthen further before we enter the fall season. There have been some signs that that is in fact happening. So, the bottom line is, time will tell. But, all is not lost. So, don’t give up hope. I guess the reason behind this post is to encourage everyone to be optimistic. After all, the way it looks presently, we still have a pretty good chance at seeing at least an average rainfall for the 2014-2015 winter.
Posted on: Thu, 07 Aug 2014 22:23:23 +0000
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