> Good Morning PDS friends and fans. We have a lot to discuss this morning so lets get right to it. PICTURE 1 is the current surface map. It shows a quasi-stationary front across the middle of Missouri and Illinois. Here is St. Louis, we are on the warm side of this front. Very warm and humid air is being pumped into the mid and lower Mississippi River, Ohio River Valley and the Mid South. Out west, a surface low will continue to deepen and track northeast across Missouri. PICTURE 2 shows the Significant Tornado Ingredients parameter valid at 4pm this afternoon. This parameter shows where the best atmospheric conditions to support tornadic development will be. A 60% bulls-eye is noted across western Mississippi with the corresponding areas surrounding this area. At this timeframe, the model thinks that the St. Louis area will be in the 15-30% range which sound about the time the storms will be coming through the area. PICTURES 3-5 denote the risks for today with a Moderate Risk for severe thunderstorms across Central and Eastern Arkansas, Southeast Missouri, the southern tip of Illinois, Western Kentucky, Western Tennessee, and Northern & Central Mississippi. Corresponding to the moderate risk in PIC 4 is the tornado probabilities reside. ANYONE WHO LIVES IN THE YELLOW SHADED AREA IS AT AN EXTREME RISK FOR TORNADOES TODAY. Surrounding the 10% risk is a 5% risk in brown which does include the St. Louis area. PIC 5 shows the severe wind probabilities and ANYONE IN THE PURPLE HATCHED OR RED HATCHED AREAS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS DOES INCLUDE THE ST. LOUIS AREA. Of course timing is everything, but as I see this playing out, A severe line of thunderstorms will approach the region as early as 1-2 pm in central Missouri and move rapidly east. I expect the line to be in the St. Louis area by 3-4pm and then across eastern Illinois by 5-6 pm. For those of you in the Mid-South.. You need to pay very close attention to the weather. Tornado Watches are posted for Arkansas as I type this. IF YOU HAVE FAIMLY OF FRIENDS ACROSS THE RISK AREAS FROM ST. LOUIS SOUTH AND EAST, PLEASE SHARE THIS THREAD WITH THEM SO THEY CAN BE INFORMED. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL HIT PRETTY QUICKLY. I WILL HAVE UPDATES AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE. - GENE
Posted on: Mon, 13 Oct 2014 13:25:07 +0000
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