“INDONESIA, ON THE EDGE OF A CLIFF” (Part One) By : Edwin N. Rondonuwu By next year, Indonesia will carry out General Elections (PEMILU) as the means to implement the people’s sovereignty which is conducted in a direct, general, free, secret, honest and fair way in the Unified State of the Republic of Indonesia based on Pancasila and the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia. In that moment, a number of 187,285,378 Indonesian voters (KPU data per July 2013) will elect Members of the House of Representatives, the People’s Representatives Council, the Provincial House of Representatives, and the Regency/Municipality House of Representatives, and, in the same year, to elect the President and Vice President of the Republic of Indonesia. While Elections of Governor, Regent, and Mayor in several certain regions will still be going on in a democratic way before the end of this year. The event of General Election is commonly given a political jargon known as “democtratic party”. And, a “party” usually reflects the feelings of happy, joyful, and merry. Meanwhile, the uproars of the party tend to make people careless on their national economic problems due to acting like a prig. The relevant questions raised afterwards are “Are we still able to be happy and joyful when realizing that the danger of economic crisis is threatening? Or, “Do we not realized that economic crisis, to some extent, can massively destroy all aspects of life of a nation”? “Have we forgotten the bitterest experiences of Indonesia in the past as the largest plundering occurred ever as never before in world history, followed by the arsons of a number of buildings and shopping centers, and also the rapes toward a number of Chinese females which were done hot-temperedly by demonstrators in the capital city of Jakarta and several other regions, as the repercussions of Indonesia’s financial default in 1998”? In that circumstances, “Did not we testify a lot of rallies and demonstrations by various elements of Indonesian societies, even thousands of university students drowning crowdedly protested the government’s default (including parliament) by occupying the House of Representatives office that up even to the roof of the plenary building”? Then, what does the democratic party mean if it just produces unqualified members of parliament and corruptible leaders who will only increase the people’s afflictions that creates chaos in the end? What does the political clout, that a politician or someone might have, mean if in fact he or she is unable to overcome the economic crisis for the sake of all Indonesian people? Will not those things as mentioned above, be probably happened again in Indonesia, in the same way or another, just because of miscasting the unqualified candidates in “2014 General Election”? On the other hand, we certainly bear on mind that having the elected best ones successfully will not guarantee Indonesia’s economy to become better instantly. However, it will at least denote an important step to start a significant change constitutionally to restrategize the economy. So, what does the Indonesia’s economy condition look like nowadays ? Is it in crisis ? If yes, then, will it become worse in the year 2014 or..? How should we respond to it ? And, what strategic actions do we have to take in order to survive ? Well, as we all know, “the world of economy” is a very extremely complex matter. It covers macro-microeconomics, social-cultural-political aspects, national- international-global levels, and still many more, which are interconnected directly and or indirectly, in a big scale and or in a small one, and in one sector individually or in various sectors comprehensively. In other words, since it is something huge and complicated, no one can be fully understand at all and no one is also able to control all those aspects by herself alone. Having no intention to act like a teacher, this article is meant to share opinion in responding the questions mentioned above although it might only be considered as small as a grain of mustard seed. Let us take a look first at the pin-points of Indonesia’s economic condition and its very recent dynamics, and also the external factors which are going to have an affect on it particularly in 2014. A brief history of Post-Reformed Indonesia’s economy. After waiting for about three years in affliction due to economic crisis in 1998, Indonesia had fortunately found its way to recover economic growth in the early 2000s owing to the rapid growing of China’s economy which reached up to 13 percent per year ever at that period of time. The fantastic economic advancement had caused a high demand on Coal to satisfy the needs of China’s glowing industries which had accidentally given a great chance to Indonesia to increase export. In the year 2000, Indonesia had been successfully made surplus on its Balance of Payment by US$ 3 billion, and went through the following years by maintaining the surplus until the global economic crisis occured in 2008 which unexpectedly struck Indonesia’s economic growth down to 4.1 percent in 2009. Yet, In 2010 the economy of Indonesia began to wriggle again and reached its peak in 2011 by achieving a new record of 6.9 percent on year-on-year basis owing to the booming of two main commodities namely Coal and Crude Palm Oil (CPO) by which Indonesia pocketed more than US$ 3 billion as surplus to the Balance of Payment. Afterwards, Indonesia’s economy had been declining again due to the fall of prices of world commodities including Coal and CPO in addition to the more increase in import that made Indonesia’s Balance of Payment totally in deficit. Indonesia’s import in July 2013 had reached a new record of US$ 17,42 billion, by month, as never before in Indonesia’s export-import history. The previous record was in October 2012 by US$ 17,21 billion. The highest export ever was in August 2011 by US$ 18,65 billion. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s exports from January to August 2013 cumulatively down to US$ 119,32 billion or decline 6.12 percent compared to that of in 2012 which reached US$ 127,09 billion. On August 2013 (by month) Indonesia noted export of US$ 13,16 billion that declined 12.77 percent compared to US$ 15,09 billion on July 2013. … (To be continued)
Posted on: Mon, 02 Dec 2013 06:15:45 +0000