**INVEST 96L TROPICAL UPDATE – KEEP TABS ON THE - TopicsExpress

**INVEST 96L TROPICAL UPDATE – KEEP TABS ON THE MODELS!!!** As of 9:20 a.m., more convection/thunderstorms are seen with the tropical wave near Puerto Rico. This could be a sign that the wave will finally organize enough to be classified a TD or a TS when it moves further away from land tonight. Doppler radar from Puerto Rico has a large area of convection (unorganized), but the center of the low appears to be southeast of Puerto Rico. The track model forecasts are really all over the place…especially in 3 days. A landfall threat in the Gulf of Mexico coast or the Florida coast is very unlikely. A curve offshore is more likely. Thereafter, when the storm reached latitudes even with North Carolina, the model forecasts diverge a bit. This is where we’ll have to keep close tabs. If a ridge of high pressure is slower or stronger than forecast, then the track could be further west. This scenario is seen in only about 20% of the models. The higher probability is that this will head out to sea with no fanfare. But my experience and perusal of the models raised an eyebrow this morning. Bottom Line: Keep watching the tropics and the forecast track.

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