> Journey from democracy to dictatorship has begun? > > M. Shahidul Islam > > With less than eight weeks left for the 9th Parliament to retreat into > suspended animation, the pestering constitutional crisis is raising > the dreaded spectre of dictatorship returning with a vengeance; thanks > to the dogged intransigence of the government with respect to the > election modalities. > > The government has been delusional in thinking that it has both the > watch and the time; unbeknownst that its uncompromising stance > relating to the formation of a poll-time Caretaker Government (CG) has > already robbed it of the time, leaving it with only the watch itself > to show off. > > Election timing > The road map broached by the Prime Minister on September 2 about the > election timing and the nature of the poll- time government has made > matters worse further; by beaming an iniquitous and despondent signal > to the opposition parties, as well as to the observers within and > outside the country. > > The PM said during a scheduled meeting with the Secretaries that (1) > the general election would be held without dissolving the current > parliament and the cabinet; (2) it will be held within the last 90 > days of the parliament’s tenure, which ends on January 24, 2014; (3) > the House would not be in session and the cabinet would take no > important policy decision during the 90-day interregnum beginning with > October 27 and ending on January 24, 2014. > > That implies the election must be held by late December or early > January, the PM being the chief executive and the civil and the > military administrations being under her command. It also implies that > incumbent MPs from the ruling parties (Awami League and its allies) > will contest the polls using their existing power, office, perks and > all the paraphernalia that power has bestowed on them. > > This being the precise label playing field of which the government > brags about, the opposition parties are faced with a Shakespearean > dilemma of some sort: to join or not to join the poll. And, the PM’s > previous assertion that she would not ‘budge even a hair’ with respect > to the poll mechanism and her law minister’s reiteration of the same > on September 2 that Constitution would not be amended to accommodate > the opposition’s demand for a CG, the prevailing constitutional > crisis has hit the edge of a perilous precipice. > > Constitutional contradictions > As was feared, the inherent contradictions in the 15thAmendment to the > Constitution have not only come to hound the nation from many fronts, > the concentration of power in the hand of a single individual has > ushered in the spectre of autocracy; of dysfunctional administration; > of paralysis in decision making; and, the plausibility of a return to > the October 2006 syndrome when a series of CGs failed to stem the tide > of street agitations relating to the neutrality of another interim > regime, of another equally detested time. > During the slated poll, if it does take place at all, the PM will > commandeer all the executive authorities – civil and military – and, > it will be entirely on her discretion whether the Election Commission > (EC) will get the needed cooperation from the executive branches of > the government pursuant to Article 126 of the Constitution. > > As well, much needed new laws to overcome the evident hamstring facing > the election cannot be enacted pursuant to Article 124 due to the > Parliament being rendered dysfunctional as of October 24; pursuant to > Article 123. > > Army & the RPO > Even if the PM can and does gear up the civil administration to aid > the EC in conducting the polls, no viable recourse is left in the > instance the law and order situation spills out of control, > necessitating the summon of the armed forces in aid of civil power. > The amendment to sub para XXIaa of para 2 of the Election Commission > Act 1972 (aka RPO 1971) has snatched away the EC’s right to call the > members of the armed forces to quell election-time unrest due to the > amended definition of the “law enforcing agency” meaning only the > Police Force, Armed Police Battalion, Rapid Action Battalion, Ansar, > Battalion Ansar, BGB and the Coast Guard Forces. > > An EC source confided that BNP’s formal request, made on March 19 to > the EC, to include the army in the RPO as one of the law enforcers > could not be complied with due to what the official said ‘order from > the government not to do so.’ That being the degree of the EC’s > independence, what are the likely scenarios in the instance the main > opposition parties decide not to join the poll under such a > mismatched, biased and precarious situation? > > Scenario one: If the law and order situation remains reasonably and > tolerably stable, the government can go it alone, hold the election, > and win it. If not, declaration of emergency by the President, > pursuant to Article 141A (1), is the only way out. > > The Singapore meeting > A meeting in Singapore last week between the incumbent President > Khondoker Abdul Hamid and former President HM Ershad discussed that > scenario with Ershad posing as the prospective opposition leader in > the next parliament, should BNP desist from joining the polls, > according to a reliable source. > > Scenario two: The imposition of emergency not offering a mandate to > suspend the Constitution, election must take place by January 24, 2014 > (Article 123). And, the legal validity of an emergency being only for > 120 days unless ratified by the parliament (Article 141A(2), the > constitutional crisis will exacerbate further due to the government’s > inability to re-convene the “dormant parliament” from its feinted > slumber. > > Scenario three: The emergency will, however, enable the government to > deploy the armed forces to preserve law and order under the pretext of > national security facing grave danger. It will also ensure that the > election is held even without the participation of major political > parties under the barrel of guns. > > From then on, armed forces, neither the PM nor the President, will > roll the dices of power and the flight of dictatorship will take off > to a higher altitude to carry the nation toward an unknown > destination, as did the last military-backed regime in 2007-2008. > Scenario four: The scenario three being brazenly dictatorial and > unacceptable to both domestic and international observers, the nation > will be thrown into an irreversible chaos from early 2014; compelling > some foreign powers, at some point, to intervene physically in the > internal affairs of the nation. > > Is the PM willing to go to that extreme? “Yes,” said one of her former > aides, “only not to see the BNP-Jamat axis in power again.” > > Ironically, this is the vintage politics a generation has digested; > this is the passion of hatred it will carry forward; this is the > newly-defined patriotism the leaders of today will have bestowed to > the posterity. >
Posted on: Mon, 09 Sep 2013 03:56:14 +0000
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