[Junio, 18] Informe original del conjunto NOAA, USAF y U.S. Dept. - TopicsExpress

[Junio, 18] Informe original del conjunto NOAA, USAF y U.S. Dept. of Commerce. ClimaEspacial.net/informes-solares.html ------------------------------------------------------------- :Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2013 Jun 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 17/0812Z from Region 1772 (S20E15). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at 17/0427Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/2308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 505 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20 Jun). III. Event probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun Class M 20/20/20 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Jun 124 Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 125/130/130 90 Day Mean 17 Jun 120 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 006/005-007/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/10 Minor Storm 01/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/20 Major-severe storm 15/20/15

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