[Junio, 26] Informe original del conjunto NOAA, USAF y U.S. Dept. of Commerce. ClimaEspacial.net/informes-solares.html ------------------------------------------------------------- :Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2013 Jun 25 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (26 Jun) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (27 Jun) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (28 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 590 km/s at 25/0812Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/2130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/2147Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 24/2300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17149 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jun) and unsettled to active levels with a chance for minor storm levels on days two and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun). III. Event probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun Class M 20/15/10 Class X 05/01/01 Proton 05/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Jun 109 Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 105/100/095 90 Day Mean 25 Jun 123 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 014/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 006/008-011/016-013/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/35/30 Minor Storm 01/20/10 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 15/50/40
Posted on: Wed, 26 Jun 2013 08:18:43 +0000
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