March 28, 2014 6:43 pm Turkey must look beyond Erdogan Premier can no longer return country to moderate path Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s prime minister, this weekend faces the biggest test of his 11 years in power. In the past few months, the 60-year-old premier has polarised Turkish society by passing a raft of illiberal laws with the apparent intent of protecting himself and his cronies from corruption allegations that have rocked his government. To save his political skin, Mr Erdogan reassigned thousands of police officials investigating the allegations. He has now gone a step further by banning Twitter and YouTube ahead of the vote. Understandably, many fear Turkey is lurching towards authoritarian government. Mr Erdogan faces a moment of reckoning on Sunday when Turks vote in local elections across the country. If Mr Erdogan’s AK party scores about 45 per cent or higher, his position will be consolidated and he will be in a position to meet his goal of running for the Turkish presidency. But if he wins less than 40 per cent or loses the crucial cities of Istanbul or Ankara, his leadership will be seriously damaged. Twitter wins court fight in Turkey Erdogan defiant over Twitter ban Turkish citizens defy Twitter ban to attack prime minister Turkey blocks access to Twitter The people of Turkey must decide their political future. That is only right. But even if Mr Erdogan performs well – and the AKP retains a very strong following in its Anatolian heartland and beyond – he can no longer be regarded as a figure who can unite Turkey and return the country to stability. Turkey must start looking for its next generation of leaders – even within the ranks of the AKP – who can end the political turmoil. The fundamental problem the nation faces is the schism between Mr Erdogan and Fethullah Gulen, a powerful Sunni Muslim cleric based in Pennsylvania. A decade ago, Mr Erdogan and Mr Gulen joined forces to conduct a peaceful revolution against Turkey’s army and secularist leaders, allowing the moderate Muslim AKP to consolidate power. Now the Gulenists are leveraging their position inside Turkey’s security and judicial structures to undermine Mr Erdogan, whom they believe has become a detached authoritarian. As is often the case in history, the revolution is devouring its own children. The internecine warfare is destroying Turkey’s independent institutions and the international reputation it earned in the early years of AKP power. Then it was hailed as an example of a moderate democratic Muslim majority state. In order to sully Mr Erdogan’s reputation, the Gulenists, members of a shadowy group that can in no way be seen as a responsible opposition, appear to be leaking compromising tape recordings alleging corruption by Mr Erdogan and his allies. Mr Erdogan’s ban on Twitter, which is still in force despite an adverse court ruling, came as he tried to staunch the leaks. Overall, Mr Erdogan’s high-handed conduct in office brings immense cost to the country’s standing. When set against the past decade of Turkish history, this is a tragic turn of events. At the start of the millennium, Turkey acquired much political favour in the west as it carried out reforms under the aegis of the International Monetary Fund and the EU. Once the country’s negotiations on EU membership stalled, progress quickly unwound. But what the country is also discovering is that the strong levels of economic growth enjoyed during Mr Erdogan’s first decade in office may be drawing to an end. Growth this year could be a mere 2 per cent, down from about 9 per cent a few years back. This weekend’s election must therefore mark a watershed in Mr Erdogan’s leadership. Whatever the result, the way forward for Turkey is to restore authority and integrity to the nation’s institutions. It may well be that Mr Erdogan wins enough backing on Sunday to remain at the helm of national politics. But his reputation as a statesman is shredded. SubmitBy submitting this comment I confirm that I have read and agreed to the FT terms and conditions. Please also see our commenting guidelines. Subscribe to comments Comments Sorted by newest first | Sort by oldest first ReportHal-Luke Savas | March 29 12:25am | Permalink a quick clarification about the reassigning of thousands police officers, tens of senior judges and large number of government officials by Erdogan... he alleges that there are thousands of Gulen supporters who are attempting to seize the Turkish Government through silent infiltration. He claims this is sinister and unconstitutional as Gulen supporters are not elected officials but appointed government employees who are attempting something illegal whilst ignoring their superiors.. he claims no country in the world will accept attempted civilian coup detat and he says there is a significant interference from outside Turkey... if he is correct then indeed any illegal civilian infiltration of Government for an eventual silent coup detat is unacceptable. If he is wrong then the ballot box will provide the answer.. hence it is best we outsiders do not interfere in Turkish politics; only the Turkish people themselve should decide that through a fair election process.. TURKEY IS OUR FRIEND AND WE SHOULD KEEP IT AS SUCH. ReportHal-Luke Savas | March 29 12:02am | Permalink Turkey is a staunch supporter of the West and is firmly embedded in the Western camp, no problems in that respect as millions of Turks are pro-Western, pro USA and pro EU.. However, the attitude of EU on Turkish membership is deeply shameful and racist which is pushing some Turks to think their future maybe best served elsewhere (EU is forcing Erdogan into the path mentioned above). The worst scenario is where Russia SOMEHOW gains access to Eastern Mediterranean and Suez by cleverly side stepping Turkish bottleneck through disenchanted/dismayed Turks who are questioning their own loyalty vis-a-vis disloyalty of EU; especially on 50 years of ongoing insincere membership negotiations (this is the real shame and true racism and the affects on EU will only become apparent if the energy corridor through Turkey is disrupted!).. Turkey-EU-NATO-USA is the best insurance against upsetting the military balances in the Eastern Med, consequences of which will not be insignificant (if Turkey is gone then there will be a very serious, unsurmountable obstacle to regain back control) . On a real nightmare situation think about the arrival of the Russo-Sino pact showing up at Eastern Med and Arabian Gulf without any resistance from the Turks. SO, BEST TO LET THE TURKISH PEOPLE DECIDE WHO IS TO GOVERN THEM WITHOUT EXTERNAL INTERFERENCE WHILST WE SHOULD DO ALL WE CAN IN EU AND USA TO STOP SOME DUBIOUS LOCAL MINORITIES ATTEMPTING TO IMPOSING THEIR SINISTER AGENDAS UPON TURKS. Given that Gulen Group is not a Turkish political party but a wishful religious activity headed and managed from Pennsylvania, it is best kept away from the current Turkish political equation for the sake of Turkish-NATO-USA relations. Otherwise the whiplash from 76 million people may be rather nasty for us in the West if Turks are interfered with and clandestinely forced to choose between Gulen or Erdogan and West or East!!. Lets also remember that Turks in the East will change the map of Europe and Middle East whilst Turks in the West will safeguard our way of life.. Reportbehcettin | March 28 11:47pm | Permalink Erdogan still commands a great following almost like a misbehaving football star does. Many in Turkey identify with him easily as the underdog who made it to top, and think that even if hes corrupt he in fact deserves any monies he got for all the service hes made to them and the country. People in Turkey like a strong leader, and Erdogan is at his best fighting off enemies. Gulenists are a cerebral bunch. Apart from all power struggle and games, they dislike Erdogan for harming Islam in the global stage. I suspect thats a view also shared by some others in AKP. Im glad this talk of secular elite might be subsiding after all. It is and was an absurd term akin to calling the French political class a secular elite. Yes, there was/is a secularist class in Turkey - who think theyre better than the Islamists - but for all their failures we might all (re-)discover that theyre probably an essential part of a healthy functioning democracy in an Islamic country. Just as the Islamists have learned the virtues of democracy, the secularists can learn the virtues of liberalism. Im still optimistic AKP harbours genuine democrats, and Turkey will inch towards a better and deeper democracy with some luck. Democracy needs a cultural foundation, and Turkey might just be at that vulnerable critical junction where a revolution may be followed by a mishap only to resume its progress eventually. All we need is for Turkey to start acting up as well. Scary. Just like Hitler. Is it now clear to everyone why the USA is so keen to get Turkey into the EU? Instead of needing 28+ Victoria Nulands - each costing $5bn - you would need just one. There is a wonderful economy of scale in subverting countries. Just how much more difficult it would be to lobby and get your GM rubbish accepted if the USA were made up of 50 states? You can legislate obesity at a massive saving. BTW, anyone can get strong levels of economic growth by getting the country and the people of the country into debt. That is what is happening right now in the UK - people running down their savings to maintain their standard of living. How long that can go on for is another matter. PM Erdogan is indeed a liability to his party, his country and all democracies, aspiring and otherwise. Beset by corruption allegations, tainted by hs own autocratic and illegal moves he wouldve been forced to resign from any other elected position, local or national. At the moment, to the great shame of most Turkish voters, he continues to use the instruments of state to protect himself, his buffoonish advisers, and thieving cronies from justice. Turkeys friends abroad need to denounce him as they isolate him and his organized gang of thiefs. ReportDobri | March 28 8:27pm | Permalink Turkish war-gamble is much more risky than Ukrainian ...strong levels of economic growth enjoyed during Mr Erdogan’s first decade in office... - no, during his first 5 years, by following imf program, and relative to previous period that included financial collapse. since then, slowing growth and debt fuelled. overall growth over last 10 years similar to turkey historic average. this comment is inaccurate to the point of misrepresentation. or, lets just say wrong. please dont repeat.
Posted on: Sat, 29 Mar 2014 02:05:18 +0000
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