...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO MUCH OF MISSOURI. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO...FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK EWD FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE OH/TN VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MO WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E/NE ACROSS SRN IA WITH A TRAILING SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS FAR ERN KS/WRN MO INTO ERN OK/WRN AR. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING/WEAKENING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH. FURTHER WEST...ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE WILL MIGRATE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE CNTRL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...CNTRL/SRN MO...NRN AR...FAR NE OK... THE MCS ACROSS ERN KS INTO WRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EWD...DECAYING DURING THE PRE-NOON HOURS OVER CNTRL MO. THIS ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL...MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AND/OR ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHERE BOUNDARY-LAYER RECOVERY OCCURS BENEATH THINNING CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR FROM NE OK/SW MO INTO CNTRL MO/N-CNTRL AR. MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 25-35 KT MAY RESULT IN SOME SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS...BUT POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... MOIST...UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EJECTING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL AID IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN SPORADIC GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL. ..LEITMAN/COHEN.. 08/07/2014
Posted on: Thu, 07 Aug 2014 07:23:37 +0000
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