...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ...SYNOPSIS... A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER JAMES BAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED LONG-WAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE ERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. A NUMBER OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THIS BROADER-SCALE REGIME...THE MOST SALIENT OF WHICH TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO NEAR THE OK-AR BORDER BY 31/12Z. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE SEWD ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH SHOULD BECOME WELL-DEFINED BY AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. ...SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM WRN KS INTO PORTIONS OK. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING OVER W-CNTRL TX TO YIELD A PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONE BY AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED TSTMS BY MID AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY OVER THE ERN TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK. WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...THE PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 35-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...THE SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. EXPECT THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO SPREAD ESEWD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATER TONIGHT. SHOULD LATER DATA INDICATE GREATER INSTABILITY THAN THAT CURRENTLY FORECAST...AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
Posted on: Wed, 30 Jul 2014 07:00:23 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015