**NOTIFICATION ** POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT ( major ) WINTER STORM FEB 1-2 FOR MUCH VA as well as southern md ... northern / western NC I have been watching the threat for February 1-2 for several days now and the early Monday morning European model is pretty bullish or aggressive with this potential setup for significant if not major winter storm for lower Southern Maryland all of Virginia ( including hampton roads) and much of northern and Western North Carolina. After the noreaster is finally done with New England and moves up into southeastern Canada .... true arctic air will overrun the eastern half the country. Data shows that the polar vortex (PV ) is finally going to move out of the far northeast corner of Canada were it has been since December 1.... and drop southward into Southern Quebec Canada. This movement will reinforce the arctic air and send it plunging deeper into the gulf coast states. We can see this on the first image. I have drawn in where the polar vortex will be located in the two pieces of energy in the jet stream which will cause the winter storm to develop over the southeastern U.S. JAN 31- FEB 1 Last winter VA and the Carolinas as well as GA and TN had significant winter storms and ice was because the arctic air was very powerful and reached the Gulf coast. In this setup for FEN 1 ....the arctic air is going to be almost as strong as what we saw last winter. These next two images show the the waves of Llow pressure bringing heavy snow to Virginia North Carolina Southern Maryland Southern West Virginia and ICE to TN Northern Georgia portions of north and South Carolina. That is also somewhat significant because typically areas such as North Carolina and much of Virginia do not see the intense coastal storms when they get their significant snow and ice. These areas get their significant snow and ice from weaker areas of low pressure which travel in a west to Eastr direction across TN & NC if. This third map shows the extremely impressive and huge snow amounts that the European models producing for most of Virginia. The black area refers to snow mounts between 12 and 16 inches and it covers almost the entire commonwealth even into Hampton roads. Of course this event is still 6 to 7 days away and the key the situation is the position of the PV. In order for this sort of significant winter storm to hit North Carolina and Virginia the PV has to come south and move into southeastern Canada. If for any reason the PV does not come this far south... Then the significant snow will probably move further up the coast into the Northern Middle Atlantic and Virginia and North Carolina were probably see less snow and more ICE.
Posted on: Mon, 26 Jan 2015 09:40:00 +0000
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