... On balance, case-by-case local cease-fires will be favorable to the rebels, and therefore more sustainable. That is why, at Geneva, the negotiating parties should focus on two tasks. First, they need to lay the groundwork for the spread of limited cease-fires nationwide. They can do that by reaching a deal that puts local leaders and rebels in charge of security and policing their own areas. That would bring the armed opposition forces into the state institutions. Such measures of local autonomy would reassure rebels across the country that their fate, and that of the country, will not be decided by fiat. Second, they need to think carefully about Assad’s future. It might not be practical for Assad to leave power before the two sides agree on a governing body to lead the transition, but without his eventual departure from office, peace is unimaginable. With the rise of radicals in Syria, it is natural that intelligence agencies look to him as a potential bulwark against extremism. However, he is more of a liability than an effective partner. As long as Assad is in power, al Qaeda and other extremist forces can claim legitimacy in the fight against his regime. It would be shortsighted, then, for the international community to try to build a postwar Syria in which Assad plays any role. The best strategy would be to build peace in Syria, neighborhood by neighborhood, and to prepare for Assad’s departure ...
Posted on: Thu, 23 Jan 2014 23:36:31 +0000
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