*** SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE: 1:50PM WED, JULY 15 **** The Storm Prediction Center has issued the following Mesoscale Discussion for our area.... Severe Weather Watches and Warnings are likely within the next hour... Storm Cells already are developed over NJ, and likely to increase / strengthen in rapid formation.... STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES... and please share these posts / watches / warnings as they are issued.... OFFICIAL TEXT: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1388 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NEW YORK CITY...NJ...DE...FAR SE PA...MD...ERN VA...NE NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 151723Z - 151900Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NE NC EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE VICINITY OF NEW YORK CITY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WARNING ISSUANCE APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MTNS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN PA SOUTHWARD INTO VA AND NORTHERN NC. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE TROUGH ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F AND THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. RAP (MODEL) MESOANALYSIS DATA IS SUGGESTING THAT TWO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXIST. THE FIRST IS LOCATED IN SOUTHERN NJ WITH THE SECOND OVER SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC WHERE MLCAPE (ENERGY) VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT…WSR-88D VWPS (DOPPLER RADAR) FROM WASHINGTON DC NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR NEWARK NJ SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 40 KT OF FLOW IN THE 3 TO 5 KM LAYER. THIS IS CREATING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP SHOULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALSO HAVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD BECOME MORE SUBSTANTIAL IF CELLS CAN CONGEAL INTO A LARGER LINE SEGMENTS WITH A COLD POOL ORGANIZING. ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/15/2014
Posted on: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 17:51:53 +0000
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