...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM AR INTO PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL CO INTO NERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO SERN ID AND WRN WY... ...SUMMARY... A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND FROM ARKANSAS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. OTHER SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING...FROM CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER PARTS OF ARIZONA. ...MID-ATLANTIC COAST... STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM CENTRAL/SRN NJ INTO SERN VA WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS /SBCAPE OF 1500-2000 J PER KG/. THIS AREA IS ALONG THE SERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL PROMOTE MAINTENANCE OF ORGANIZED BANDS OF STORMS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BY 03-06Z WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AND RESULTANT STABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS. ...AR INTO PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY... LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF STORMS HAS INCREASED FROM SWRN TN INTO EXTREME SERN AR WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COMPOSITE CONVECTIVE COLD AIR OUTFLOW. THE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE HAS NOT BEEN MODIFIED BY EARLIER CONVECTION TODAY WITH MLCAPE OF 2000 J/KG. THIS REGION IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT/VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...CENTRAL CO INTO NERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE... SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. NWLY FLOW ALOFT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH HAS PROMOTED ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION IS GRADUALLY OVERTURNING/STABILIZING THE AIR MASS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 03-4Z. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO SERN ID AND WRN WY... WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN WA IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SYSTEM. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITH PW NEAR 1 INCH AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS AND ASSOCIATED 35-45 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE RISK MAY SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER 03-06Z WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING...THE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC FORCING MAY SUSTAIN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...AZ... CLUSTERS OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS ELY/SELY MID LEVEL WINDS PROMOTE STORM MOVEMENT INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND WRN PARTS OF AZ WHERE THE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. OCCASIONAL WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS.
Posted on: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 05:05:51 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015