***UPDATE ON BIG EAST COAST WINTER STORM JAN 24-25** The Thursday afternoon European model as well as the 12z GFS (the fully upgraded high resolution version ) are continuing to develop the second system which comes out of the Deep south on JAN 23rd and show the system has been a POSSIBLE significant East Coast winter storm. SEE IMAGE 1 The two maps I am presenting here are from the European model. These 2 maps represent what THIS Models interpretation of how things are going to develop on January 24 and January 25. The thick white line represents the proximate rain snow line position... But please keep in mind that this is still nine days out. !! If we take this model verbatim... this is probably a rain event for Richmond and all southeast region you as well as North Carolina. On the other hand in the early Thursday morning European model had this Low much further inland passing over West Virginia and Central Pennsylvania. So one could say that this appears to be a shift towards a winter storm thread for the middle Atlantic and New England regions. Image # 3 however shows the upper air pattern and there were some problems here.`None of these problems are insurmountable but they are important reasons to not get that excited about this event just yet. In particular the NAO is still strongly positive on this map and the 50/50 Low is very weak or nonexistent. Of course there are some positive or good things with respect to the Upper air pattern which appear to be favorable for an East Coast winter storm. But it is not an ideal setup at least not as of January 15.
Posted on: Thu, 15 Jan 2015 21:23:11 +0000