** Update On The Potential For Snow Next Week ** *Note: This is a discussion only, not a forecast.. Ive talked about the possibility for a snow event in or near our area for the past two weeks. Some probably thought I was crazy taking that approach, the latter is still up for debate ;) However what isnt up for debate is the fact their appears to be an Eastern storm brewing that will likely impact Thanksgiving travel, especially just to or North & East. Ill lead this off by saying their is soooo much uncertainty with this potential system, yet its certainly worth having a non-hyped reasonable discussion. Model runs have came up with a completely different scenario than the one I showed during my update a few days ago. What hasnt changed is the fact the ECWMF (European) model is leading the charge. The GFS & Canadian models show a flatter pattern in which theirs likely no phasing and no storm. The ECWMF shows energy coming across Tennessee ultimately phasing with a developing low just off the Eastern Coast. (Note, this setup is NOT favorable for a significant East TN snow event). Typically we like to see a low develop in the Gulf, then move up through South/North Carolina. Some models tend to misplace the low pressures this far out and usually trends them to the Northwest (not always the case). Although the ECWMF is trending, I believe the other models are still playing catchup. Although the exact track (which is extremely crucial in determining our fate) has yet to be determined, Im leaning toward the ECWMFs idea of a storm system nearby. When dissecting the model guidance from the latest Canadian, GFS runs, you see those models are not picking up on some key players which is why Im not going with their current scenario. So basically for you, Its a waiting game. For me, Its a jumbled up cat fight with differing scenarios that Ill have to keep an eye on. May the model with the most snow for East TN scratch and claw its way to the bitter end. Im not going to confuse everyone this far out and go into greater detail (It gets pretty wild). So much will change over the next few days, however a storm in or near our area during the holiday season is worth multiple behind the Scenes discussions! Stay tuned to ETSW as Ill continue to have the latest information ahead of the rest. ** Below is the New and Old ECWMF runs (00z 12z) valid 18z Wednesday. Lets look for a storm to trend (which the ECWMF is showing), then well look for a more westerly track that benefits East TN.
Posted on: Sat, 22 Nov 2014 19:36:46 +0000
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