#tristatewx #INwx #ILwx #KYwx Severe Weather Update: It still appears were game for a fairly sizable severe weather event, especially South and West Of Evansville Monday Late Afternoon and Evening. Monday Morning there will be a few scattered thunderstorms on going as a warm front lifts north with the lead wave of increase shear. Strong ascent associated with the boundary will produce perhaps a few strong storms with heavy rain and small hail. Most data want to lift this convection north by about 10-11 AM. Then we may have a lull in the action. Though with no appreciable cap in place it will still likely be cloudy and windy most of the afternoon. It will have what I like to call that, thunderstormy feel to the air. Monday Afternoon: Winds most of the afternoon will be sustained between 15-20 mph with gust around 30 mph. Most of the data this evening has trended away from the idea of discrete cells developing in the afternoon. This may be due to the morning convection and remaining cloud cover during the afternoon. Although there will be so much shear, some may pop anyways, this will be my task to monitor all afternoon. Individual cells popping after 2-3PM ahead of the line may have a tornado threat to them... **This is a little faster than some models*** Timing: 6:00 PM Line is entering Southern Illinois west of I-57, note no individual cells have developed, and this has been the cause with all of the mesoscale models tonight. But again well be watching. Still have antennas up mainly after say 12:00PM~1:00 PM. By 8:00-9:00 PM main line will be entering the western counties, hopefully a nice solid line like this one, not one with multiple line segments or discrete cells. If we get a solid line heavy rain and wind will be the real concern, may get through this without too much panic. Around 11:00 PM line arrives at US-41 corridor so Evansvlle/Henderson, Vincennes, and Madisonville. By the time the line approaches US 231 it begins to fall apart and weaken, The particular frame shows 3:00 AM.
Posted on: Mon, 13 Oct 2014 06:14:53 +0000
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