1/22/15 - Evening Note and Statement Regarding The Weekend Outlook Tonight, we could see refreezing from any water remaining on surfaces from melt today. Please use caution as you travel during the overnight and keep an eye out for icy patches. Now onto the first event this weekend. As we have seen all winter, the 48 hour reads of the models have shifted and reduced snow potential. The proximity to the freezing line that I discussed earlier is creating some significant difficulty in getting a read on precipitation types and timings and the arrival of the system appears to be accelerating, which is not completely unexpected, but still important to precipitation type. With the accelerated arrival that is now modeled, we have a much higher likelihood of starting as snow in the few hours prior to midnight Friday with a shift toward freezing rain after midnight. This could result in between 1-2 of snow with at least 0.1 of ice accumulations prior to daybreak. Once we hit daylight on Saturday, we are looking at a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain across the morning and a mix of rain and snow in the afternoon, possibly transitioning back to all snow later in the afternoon and early evening, possibly resulting in more snow accumulations. Right now, there is plenty of moisture, but what exactly we see Saturday result will depend a lot of final tracking and how much cold air can hold in the area. That is now a much less certain question than what I was reading in the data last night and this morning. There are a lot of factors coming into play right now that are causing much more uncertainty with this event than I was initially reading in the models and this is a prime example of why I do not like to discuss details too far out. This year, even within my 48 hour window of higher reliability, we are still seeing significant shifts resulting in large alterations to precipitation types and accumulation outlooks. As a result of this increased uncertainty, I will be holding off on any further accumulation projections until tomorrow morning when I can see how the models behave overnight and get a better read on how the temperature line seems to be setting up. I am sorry for the delay, but I want to make sure that I am putting reliable information out there and, with the development today, I do not believe my morning post to be nearly as reliable as I first did and I do not want to add to any speculation floating around right now. I will be working this event as much as I can this evening and again tomorrow morning and will have the latest details with more precise outlook discussion in the morning update. Keep an eye on the sky and have a great night!!! -Pete
Posted on: Fri, 23 Jan 2015 00:13:59 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015