1. Hungary Simply too good a song not to get massive jury love, easily the contents finest, and not exactly a voter-repellant song either. Andras Kallay-Saunders is handsome, a good singer and the message of the song is actually well-suited to music. Arresting, one might say. People will vote for this for any number of reasons, but they will vote.The late-contest draw is a big plus here, particularly because its so much stronger than the songs that come in its wake. 2. Ukraine Even without geopolitical sympathy for Ukraine, this is simply a classic earworm. The descending piano run before the chorus is irresistible. The inane/catchy lyrics stick in the head. The presentation works, and the ending is totally spot-on as a vote-grabbing moment. The usual Ukrainian combination of an attractive woman and a vigorous pop song has had much success of late, and this is a fine example. The draw of #1 doesnt overly help, but for a high-impact song an early draw isnt necessarily a massive handicap - its been years since a big, punchy pop number has been up first. 3. Norway I think this is a massive dirge, its true, but it was also unbackable before Armenia came along. Then the air went out of the Armenia balloon after that unimpressive showing at the semis, so Im figuring this has a lot of upside. Also, Standing Still came 8th for Germany a few years ago, and this is certainly better than that. It doesnt have that much competition for its sound, really only Montenegro, which has far fewer allies and a weaker song (that I happen to prefer). 4. Armenia I think this came out looking dreadful in the semis, but barring Sognu (whose betting favouritism was a misreading borne of arrogant contempt for the art of the pop song, duly and gratifyingly rejected by the voting populace) theres little precedent for a song fancied so heavily so close to the contest completely crashing. An impressive wave of sound on CD masks a song that takes far too long to get going and I think thatll be its undoing in the final. Thats relative though, I still expect it to impress enough people to return Armenia ot the top 10. 5. Greece Their song is unexceptional and unimaginative fare, but its Greece sending a pop song. Their motivated diaspora, in Turkeys absence, are the most determined in Europe, and it is, I suppose unobjectionable. Plus people hankering for an uptempo, uncomplicated dance number should hear echoes of both 1995 and TODAY in this. I mean, Perfecto Allstars Reach Up was a colossal smash, and this is basically that plus 20 years and some dodgy rapping. Cant hurt, can it? Also helps that the only other really dancey song is Romania, and this is a much better put-together overall package. 6. Sweden When Euphoria won, the acclaim was coming from all directions, fans of all kinds but this year, I am once again getting the whiff of this is what gays and Swedes are into. Too old-fashioned to win. Definitely has enough support enough to get them into the top 10. But remember Robin Stjernberg, The Ark and Anna Bergendahl, and dont oversubscribe to the idea that Sweden are consistent performers. Also remember that the international juries at Melodifestivalen strongly preferred Ace Wilders superior Busy Doin Nothin, and that this sort of song is mostly a Northern European delicacy for televoters. I dont doubt that some constituencies will love it, just that youve got to take into account the ones that dont and have given us other things at the top. 7. The Netherlands Hungarys success with a similarly low-key folksy guitar number, and one of significantly worse quality (Kedveszem), makes me believe that this is a lot more viable than was thought before the semis, but Im not buying it as a winner as the late betting is. Its pretty great though, 8. United Kingdom Congratulations, BBC, you have discovered baseline competence at Eurovision. But hey, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Greece are four recent entrants or non-traditionally-successful countries that have been doing competent for years now, so I dont think Europe is really going to cream themselves over baseline competent when theres so much more to pick from here. I mean its not terrible, and that should be enough to see it do well with the nights best draw, but really,now. I genuinely suspect a lot of the UK-based Eurovision media commentariat is more in love with the idea of a British resurgence than they are with the erality of the song. Not to say its bad or unlikeable, its just not that big. 9. Azerbaijan Following up a few top five finishes, Im picking a bit of a dip here. The more transparent jury process, cold and distant staging and a song that while, as usual, extremely competent (also: duduk, hell yeah) is also really lacking in the sort of thing that picks up stacks of votes from people who have not been paid to cast them. I like it, but Dilara Kazimova does not appear to have much in the way of charisma. Effectively, it feels like a low-grade version of the much superior top-fiver When the Music Dies. Then again, its Azerbaijan, so top 10 it is. 10. Switzerland The song can basically bugger off, but he sure is cute. A mum-friendly Mumford & Sons. With whistling. I do not like this but a lot of people will. Certainly the entry out of my top 10 that I concede is the least likely to actually be in it, but for some reason I feel its obnoxiousness and his general hotness striking a chord. 11. Denmark Hopeless and just generally witless Bruno Mars knock-off, but Bruno Mars is massively popular. Will do OK with the televote, but the Scandophilic jurists are going to prefer the other two, methinks. 12. Spain Reports are of Ruth Lorenzos vocal histrionics going down a treat live, and also being good on TV, have swayed me to promote this heavily ahead of what I think it deserves. 13. Russia Because sometimes they dont do that well, and this feels a bit unintentionally dated. It wont stop thousands of Russians in countries where they are a substantial minority giving it a boost, but its not just ordinary, it is, unlike most Russian entries, small and modest. 14. Austria Dedicated fans love it, its a pretty effective pastiche and Conchita Wurst is attention-grabbing and performs this completely straight and very impressively. And of course Diva is a Eurovision winner, and Dancing Lasha Tumbai a runner-up. But those were also more instant songs, nagging earworms. This one is far too much of a slow-burn. It is good. But it has a lot of barriers. 15. Italy Simply because I cant believe Italy can keep having top 10 entries out of nowhere, and this seems substantially less juror-friendly than their last couple of outs. For all that I think its actually decent, its just that it doesnt have that feeling of careful craft that say, Madness of Love had, although in my opinion its rather better for it. Have to assume that she can growl this convincingly on the night because if she cant, Italy might be thinking of pissing off again. Its only their strong record since their comeback that makes me err on the side of putting it higher than I think it would go if it werent Italy. 16. Malta Because Switzerland will hoover up some of the people that also like this. This is also rubbish. 17. Romania This is the sound of Europe. But seriously, if Playing With Fire, one of the strongest songs submitted to the contest in the last decade, could only come third, Im docking this a lot of places just on song quality and horrible, horrible staging. The circular piano, really? Their previous song was a bigger hit with juries than televoters, and this is an ugly mess, so I think outside the top ten is inevitable for this. 18. Poland Superb and witty trash, but the appeal is not obvious enough to counter their lack of traditional allies. I also think they should have performed the whole song in English. Its a fantastically campy translation. As far as a lol ethnic pop song goes, this is much better than the Russian Grannies but Poland is not Russia. Might be the first song to make an active play for the sizeable Polish diaspora but this is an untested market, so Im sceptical of its wider appeal even though I was pretty much sold from the line about cream and butter. 19. Finland One of my favourites in the contest, like a better, more enlivened version of what Lithuania sent last year, a politely rousing rock song. I guess this is midway between that and A Friend in Londons New Tomorrow, but Finlands record, give or take Lordi, is not strong, and despite the comparison, the whoa-oh-oh bit isnt as cretin-moving as the equivalent bit in New Tomorrow. 20. France Jaunty and enjoyably silly but also a cluttered pigsty that you cant even imagine working on stage one bit. Cannot see the juries saving it like they sometimes do with French entries like, say, Patricia Kaas. 21. Iceland Squeezed every drop of potential out of an annoying song, but up against a lot more songs theres bound to be enough that dont fall apart completely to take attention from this. 22. Germany With Georgia safely negotiated, the task of being the worst song in the contest falls to Elaizas oompah Kate Nash bullshit. Putting this down really low because Germanys record is pretty dire of late - the bright spots being Lena, whose magnetism is a law unto itself, and Standing Still, an example of a song whose type is popular throughout Europe. This not only has neither of those pluses, its also a dreadful, unlikeable song. But Im not putting it at the very bottom because oompah nonsense clearly has some fans, and it did win a televote, admittedly one comprising Germans. Weirdos. 23. San Marino Valentina Monetta deserves this. Qualification, that is, the song probably deserves a mid-table finish. But dont go expecting her to storm the wider Eurovision publics hearts now shes out of the semis. Therell be some votes from Italy and some jury love from Albania and Montenegro but not a great deal else. Its a pretty small pie Valentinas looking to eat and Conchita Wurst has got first dibs on it. 24. Slovenia No, I dont know how it happened either. A pleasant bit of low-impact genericness that would have been just as at home in 2004 as 2014. Some things dont change. Definitely not the third-worst song going or close to it, but Slovenia has no mates and their record in the final is shocking. 25. Montenegro Well done on qualifying. Your song is actually quite decent, although you are pretty much a bargain basement (and worse-looking) Zeljko Joksimovic. But the people who voted for your mildly windswept... wind-ruffled perhaps... Balkan ballad thing are now going to vote for Norway. Sorry. Their mistake. 26. Belarus Certainly have gone from the wtf is this to omg this is so catchy and silly and brilliant but it took me about five listens aided by the absurdity of both the promo video and the Belarusian selection performance. All the funny bits of those have been excised for Eurovision, so as joyously stupid as it is, public opinion seems likely to regard Teo as a bit of a twerp and punish him. Fools!
Posted on: Sat, 10 May 2014 12:04:54 +0000
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