1 day to go! Who will win? Tomorrow 5,166,088 registered voters will go to the polls. The result is difficult to predict, as it is likely to be a close call between the ruling PF party’s Edgar Lungu and the opposition UPND party’s Hakainde Hichilema, with MMD’s Nevers Mumba trailing far behind. This is a heavily funded campaign, at least judging from the many chartered planes and helicopters whizzing around. Many of the candidates have also embraced the internet, using Facebook and Twitter to their full potential, posting pictures of packed rallies and catchy political messages. Some candidates, however, do not even have a party website. The campaigns have been relatively peaceful but for two major incidents. In Shiwa N’gandu, PF cadres tried to torch a helicopter carrying UPND leaders. In Mongu, the two parties clashed at the airport. There have also been reports of clashes in Lusaka and other places, often involving pangas. The voter turnout may be lower than in 2011. Although the Electoral Commission of Zambia has replaced lost or misplaced voter cards, affecting 88,567 voters, it is using the same voter register as in 2011, which means some voters have died while others have moved. In addition, the election may be affected by voter apathy due to the high number of parliamentary by-elections since 2011, and the fact that everyone will have to vote again in 2016. However, there has been a high interest in the election, especially in urban areas, where the candidates have been thoroughly scrutinised, suggesting that more may choose to exercise their democratic right this time round. Zambia uses the first-past-the-post election system, which allows a candidate to win with less than the majority of votes, as long as the rest of the votes are spread amongst the other candidates. In 2011, for instance, Michael Sata (PF) won with 1,170,966 votes, equivalent to 42% of the total votes cast, against Rupiah Banda (MMD) with 987,866 votes, a difference of only 183,100 votes. In 2011, Sata won four provinces, including his strongholds of Luapula and Northern Provinces, but his victory was driven by Lusaka and Copperbelt. These urban areas remain crucial, as they have many voters. In 2011, they were lured by the PF’s promises. The question is whether they are prepared to give the PF another chance to fulfil the promises, or whether they feel cheated enough to vote for UPND. Lungu has the advantage of the incumbency, but the PF’s power base and hence stronghold voters have been split, as many party members are against him. The UPND will be hoping for a high voter turnout as that seems to help the opposition, at least judged from previous elections. The winner will not be in office for long, as he is only completing Sata’s term until 2016, when the next round of general elections will be held. Whoever wins will therefore have to go into campaign mode almost immediately, meaning that government is likely to continue its high spending, and that political manoeuvring will continue.
Posted on: Mon, 19 Jan 2015 06:08:00 +0000
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