11/24/2013 - 9 am: Here is my updated thoughts on the forecast storm from Wednesday to Thanksgiving Day. There are still a lot of questions and uncertainty regarding the storm system that is expected to impact our weather from Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day. The various forecast guidance that I look at is of no help as they continue to have a large range in storm track possibilities. These storm tracks range from east of Nova Scotia to a track that takes the storm right across Maine to a track along the Maine-Quebec border. These various tracks would have significant differences with the storm’s impact here in northern Maine. A track that takes the storm to the east of Nova Scotia would give us a light to moderate snowfall (2 to 6 inches). A track that takes the storm right across Maine would lead to a few inches of snow which would change to an icy mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Finally, a track that takes the storm along the Maine-Quebec border would mean a quick snow to rain changeover with heavy rain likely from late Wednesday into early Thursday. **Here Is My Forecast For This Storm** I have no significant changes to my expected track for this storm and is actually right in the middle of the two extreme alternative options. So, I think a storm track from near Cape Cod on Wednesday afternoon to near Eastport, Maine on Wednesday night and into eastern New Brunswick by late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Based on my forecast storm track and taking in account the extreme uncertainty in the final storm track, here is my thinking on actual weather across northern Maine from Wednesday to Thanksgiving Day: Snow will develop around dawn Wednesday morning with the snow becoming heavy at times as the day progresses. There is the possibility that the snow may mix with sleet and freezing rain during Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night before it changes back to snow and ends on Thanksgiving Day morning. With the large uncertainty in the forecast and where exactly this storm will track, my forecast has a low degree of confidence and this forecast may change over the next couple of days or so. I highly encourage everyone across northern Maine and western New Brunswick to continue to check back for updated information on this storm which could significantly impact Thanksgiving travel. I will continue to post frequent updates on this forecast storm over the next few days.
Posted on: Sun, 24 Nov 2013 13:58:17 +0000
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