1100 AM HST SUN AUG 10 2014 A 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON AIRCRAFT JUST COMPLETED PASSES THROUGH JULIO...PROVIDING CRITICAL DATA ON THE CYCLONE/S INTENSITY AND WIND RADII. GIVEN THAT JULIO IS NO LONGER DEEMED TO BE A THREAT TO THE STATE OF HAWAII...THIS WILL BE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INTO THE CYCLONE. FOR THOSE CURIOUS ABOUT THE UNUSUAL TRIP TO THE NORTHEAST THAT THE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MADE...THIS WAS DONE AT THE REQUEST OF THE US COAST GUARD...IN ORDER TO ASSIST IN COMMUNICATING WITH A SAILING VESSEL THAT WAS IN DISTRESS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF JULIO. LATEST DATA INDICATE THAT JULIO REMAINS A HURRICANE...AND MAY HAVE ACTUALLY INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 94 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS OF 79 KT WERE OBSERVED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE EYE BECAME CLOUD-FILLED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING...BUT AIRCRAFT DATA AND SSMI/S OVERPASSES AT 1521Z AND 1603Z INDICATED THAT AN ELONGATED EYE CONTINUED...WITH THE EYE MORE APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY AT ADVISORY TIME. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES RANGED FROM 4.0/65 KT TO 4.5/77 KT...AND A BLEND OF THE DATA...WITH AN EMPHASIS GIVEN TO THOSE RECEIVED FROM THE AIRCRAFT...LEADS TO AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/11 KT...WITH JULIO EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST AND A LOW ALOFT TO THE NORTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND JULIO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING WINDS BETWEEN MID LEVEL HIGHS CENTERED TO IT/S EAST AND WEST...WITH FORWARD MOTION SLOWING CONSIDERABLY BEYOND TAU 12. THE FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN HAS LED TO QUITE A CHANGE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE WITH THIS CYCLE...WITH THE GUIDANCE SHIFTING SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT FROM EARLIER. THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS SUIT... SHIFTING THE TRACK MARGINALLY IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LONGER TERM...BUT REMAINING ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER TO THE WEST. JULIO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE A JOG TOWARD THE WEST IS INDUCED BY THE RIDGE BUILDING TO IT/S EAST BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. BY TAU 96 AND 120...A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO TURN JULIO NORTHWARD...WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER TAU 120. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS JULIO GAINING LATITUDE...SSTS ALONG THE TRACK ACTUALLY INCREASE IN THE SHORT TERM...DUE TO WATER TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ANOMALOUSLY WARM...BY ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES CELSIUS...BASED ON LATEST NOAA/NESDIS ANALYSES. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIR MASS...WITH SHEAR POTENTIALLY DIMINISHING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AT THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 24.6N 152.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 25.6N 153.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 26.6N 154.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 27.4N 155.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 28.0N 157.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 29.0N 159.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 31.0N 160.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 34.0N 159.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD MC
Posted on: Sun, 10 Aug 2014 21:17:56 +0000
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