200 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KIKO DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT...AND THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO QUICKLY FALL...AND A BLEND OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS AND IN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. DISSIPATION OF THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST IN A DAY OR TWO...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. NIGHTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT KIKO HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 335/4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO CONTINUE SLOWING DOWN TODAY AS IT BECOMES SITUATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 22.7N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 23.2N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 03/0600Z 23.5N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/1800Z 23.7N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN MC
Posted on: Mon, 02 Sep 2013 08:42:23 +0000