2014-15 Is Make-or-Break Year for Detroit Pistons Brandon Jennings: The 2014-15 season will mark Brandon Jennings sixth in the league and second with the Detroit Pistons, and it may be the last chance he gets to prove he can be an above-average NBA point guard. Jennings was the top high school recruit in the class of 2008, according to both Scout and ESPN, and he made his way to the 2009 draft as an 18-year-old after a playing a season overseas. With his age and skill set, Jennings was very intriguing and full of promise. Immediately following the draft, ESPNs Chad Ford wrote that Jennings had the chance to be really special for the Milwaukee Bucks. Jennings is a terrific athlete, is super quick and can score like crazy. He needs to get stronger, work on his jump shot and settle down a bit, but he has the tools to be great if he wants to be, Ford said. It might take Jennings a little longer to realize his potential, but if he does, the Bucks hit a home run. Five years and one team later, we are still waiting for that potential to be fulfilled. This Pistons team presents Jennings best opportunity to succeed since he joined the NBA. If he will ever make the leap, now is the time. Why Jennings can take the next step Though Jennings has lost many believers in his five NBA seasons, one can still draw up a strong case that he can truly turn a corner in his game. For starters, he will be just 25 on Sept. 23. It isnt unheard of for an NBA player to make major strides in their mid-20s, and Jennings may still be a couple years from reaching his prime. And from a floor-management standpoint, Jennings has improved significantly since his second season, a year he averaged a career-low 4.8 assists. That number has increased each year since: 5.5 in 2011-12, 6.5 in 2012-13 and 7.6 in 2013-14. [Jennings] ... was definitively one of the better Pistons, not only in terms of results, but his decision-making on the floor, CBS Matt Moore wrote of Jennings 2013-14 season. Jennings took a lot of flak for the way he played, but there were subtle differences between what you watched and the numbers, which actually give you a brief glimpse of optimism. With the current Pistons roster, Jennings should be set up better than ever to succeed. They signed four above-average three-point shooters in the offseason. That will take pressure off of Jennings to take outside jumpers, and it will also create more space for his driving lanes. The offense will be better overall, and Jennings will have the opportunity to take over even more in a facilitating role. And among returning players, the cupboard isnt barren. Andre Drummond just won gold at the FIBA World Cup. Greg Monroe is one of the best young post players in the league. And Josh Smith can still be a top-50 guy when hes not being forced to play small forward. This team has the talent to make the playoffs, which would mark just the third time in Jennings career that happened. Jennings will also be playing for far and away the best coach in his career in Stan Van Gundy. When you compare him to Scott Skiles, Jim Boylan, Maurice Cheeks and John Loyer, it is no competition. Van Gundy has the 10th-best career regular-season winning percentage in NBA history, and hes fourth among active coaches. If anyone can provide the no-nonsense tough love necessary to get the most out of Jennings, it is Van Gundy. Where Jennings must improve Though he has proved to be an able and willing passer, Jennings cannot receive consideration as a top-tier point guard until he drastically improves his shot selection and becomes a plus-defender. In 2013-14, he shot just 37.3 percent from the floor—the fourth time in his career he made less than 40 percent of his field goals. His three-point percentage was also below the league average at 33.7 percent. Some of that was simply a cold April where he made just one-third of his shots and 27.1 percent of his triples, but it was also the result of just making bad decisions, as Moore explained: Jennings still takes a lot of terrible shots. Jennings was 27th overall in the league in total number of shots from isolation possessions. But isolation possessions arent bad in their own right. For example, Kevin Durant is fourth in total isolation possessions, and hes first among all players that had 100 ISO possessions last year. Brandon Jennings is not Kevin Durant. Jennings was 47th out of 69 players on that list. Moore also said that Jennings was far too eager to take step-back jumpers when his primary offensive option failed, like this: Again, having more offensive options allows Jennings to improve here, but its up to him and Van Gundy to make that happen. It takes a conscious effort to take fewer contested jump shots and instead find high-percentage looks. On the other end of the court, Jennings has plenty of quickness and long arms to help offset his slender frame—he weighs just 169 pounds. But though hes averaged over one steal per game every year of his career, hes never been a strong defender overall, falling victim to bouts of laziness and inattention. For the 2013-14 season, Synergy Sports (subscription requred) ranked Jennings as the No. 319 player overall defensively on a per-play basis. He has the natural ability—he ranked among the top 100 in isolation plays, where he has to focus on just his own man. But he struggled in most other areas. He ranked No. 205 when covering the pick-and-roll ball-handler and No. 204 when defending post-ups—a clear symptom of his size. He was also No. 258 in defending spot-ups, which seems to stem from leaving his man too much space on the perimeter. The NBA is full of very good point guards, and Jennings is far from the only player capable of averaging seven assists per game. If hes unable to take (and make) quality shots, and he cant stop those other quality guards, he simply wont get to the next level. Where does he go from here? While Jennings isnt exactly going to fall out of the league if he has plateaued as a player, he likely will have run out of shots to be the starting point guard for an NBA franchise. In the summer of 2013, Jennings was forced to take a three-year, $24 million sign-and-trade deal with the Pistons, as he had very few suitors around the league. Entering year two of that deal, that market can only have shrunk. Jennings could fall apart this season and return to the Pistons in 2015, but he would almost assuredly be headed for a career as a sixth man (or worse) in that case. Van Gundy has already taken a look at replacements for Jennings, drafting Spencer Dinwiddie and signing D.J. Augustin. And the Rajon Rondo rumors arent going away. But all of that goes away if Jennings looks engaged all season, averages 16 points and eight assists while shooting 40-plus percent from the field and defending enthusiastically. And if he can lead the Pistons to their first playoff appearance in six seasons, then he can be a long-term piece of their plan to build a contender. This will be the pivotal season of Jennings career, one way or another. Jakub Rudnik covers the Detroit Pistons as a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter. Follow @jakubrudnik Read more NBA news on BleacherReport #Basketball #NBA #NBACentral #DetroitPistons #fantasybasketball
Posted on: Wed, 17 Sep 2014 10:09:52 +0000