2014: Year of Elections for Melanesia It will be back to the polls for Fiji, Solomons and New Caledonia in 2014 By Samisoni Pareti January 2014 With the exception of Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu, all the other countries that make up Melanesia will be going to the polls this year. Fiji, of course, will be the country to watch. After leading his soldiers in a bloodless coup on December 5, 2006, military commander now Prime Minister, Voreqe Bainimarama has promised free and fair elections before September 2014. By the end of 2013, no poll date had been announced and Bainimarama was yet to launch his political party. A number of his military officers as well as civilians serving in his interim government had expressed interest in contesting the elections with him. If elections do take place, this will be the first time since it gained independence from Great Britain in 1970 for Fijians to be voting without racial lines. Bainimarama abolished racially-based constituencies in a new constitution his regime enacted in mid-2013. After more than seven years in power, the naval sea master turned army commander is optimistic of winning the elections. He had established an anti-corruption commission in an attempt to eradicate graft amongst public officials. He had pushed through major capital projects in new roads and bridges around the country, funded largely through Chinese Government loans and grants. He had shut down the influential Great Council of Chiefs and virtually silenced the vocal Methodist Church. Political parties have tougher rules to meet as well as those working in the legal and media fraternities. His recent 2014 national budget offered huge concessions in education particularly. Civil servants have also been offered salary increases effective January 2014. Regime-friendly media keeps account of growing expressions of support for Bainimarama from across the country. This has not stopped attempts by existing political parties to hammer out a lose coalition to fight the military commander. With Bainimarama’s new constitution calling for one single constituency in the 50-seat parliament, political opponents like the Fiji Labour Party, the National Federation Party, ousted Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase’s Social Democratic Liberal Party and Mick Beddoes’ United Generals Party hope to oust the military leader through the ballot box. Political pundits say Bainimarama will only go to the polls if he is confident of a win. To lose would jeopardise the immunity provision of the constitution they have brought into force. So much therefore is at stake in Fiji for 2014. It will be a year that may see the restoration of parliamentary democracy after almost eight years in the political wilderness. Bainimarama hopes his 2006 coup was the last in Fiji’s short but turbulent coup-filled political history. PAPUA NEW GUINEA 2014 would also give Bainimarama time to mend relations with his bigger Melanesian neighbour of Papua New Guinea. By the end of 2013, for some yet to be explained reasons, PNG’s long serving high commissioner in Fiji Peter Eafeare returned to Port Moresby for urgent consultations with his superiors. Unconfirmed reports say his host had objected to his continued service as dean of the diplomatic corps in Fiji. Relations between the two countries turned cold sometimes after Fiji hosted its inaugural Pacific Islands Development Forum. Peter O’Neill, Prime Minister of PNG, had initially confirmed to Bainimarama of his attendance only to cancel it at the last minute and flew to New Zealand for a state visit. His offer for a Fijian to head the proposed Pacific ACP Secretariat is also reportedly off the table. But there would be a lot more for O’Neill to worry about in the new year. In PNG, the only predictable thing about its politics is its unpredictability. 2014 gives the Prime Minister time to consolidate unity within the government ranks, reining in wayward members like his parliamentary speaker who went on a destruction spree of cultural totems and emblems found inside the parliamentary complex. The economy seems to be his primary focus for now and rundown and ill maintained public infrastructure is a priority. His 2014 budget saw unprecedented growth in investments in capital projects. Budget on infrastructure, education, health and law and order increased by 38% over 2012 levels observes the Asian Development Bank’s December 2013 Pacific Economic Monitor. Proportion of budget allocated to these sectors in the 2014 budget was to increase to 45%. Infrastructure alone got $1.1 billion, the ADB states. The new year should also give him time to work at winning back the confidence of its neighbours in the Pacific. More than 10 years of negotiations with the European Commission for an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) was scuttled in 2013 after Port Moresby broke ranks and opted to stick to its interim EPA with Europe. It said it needed to do so in order to protect its tuna exports, although critics say Port Moresby had merely succumbed to strong EC lobbying. O’Neill’s deal with the Australians in housing would-be Australian immigrants on Manus Island would turn one year in mid-2014. Fiji, particularly, was not impressed with the deal and its leader Bainimarama publicly urged O’Neill to scrap the controversial initiative. This year also gives the PNG leader another opportunity to act or not to act on the situation of West Papua. When leaders of the Melanesian Spearhead Group met for their annual summit in Noumea, New Caledonia, last year, O’Neill decided instead to embark on a state visit to Indonesia. SOLOMON ISLANDS His counterpart in the Solomon Islands Gordon Darcy Lilo also visited Indonesia in 2013 but unlike O’Neill, Lilo will be seeking a fresh mandate from voters this year. It will be an opportunity for the people of Solomon Islands to express their endorsement or otherwise of Lilo as he became Prime Minister only after the previous Prime Minister Danny Philip lost office through a confidence motion in parliament in late 2011. To be able to last thus far as PM is in a way reflective of Lilo’s fighting ability as a shrewd and experienced politician. After serving in a number of governments in senior cabinet positions, this Western Province politician has been able to keep his numbers in parliament. Only time will tell whether he would still have those numbers after the elections. Past election results tell us that only half of the sitting MPs tend to return and while Lilo may have no difficulty winning his seat, retaining the number one job as PM would be his biggest challenge. During his term, Solomon Islands took a lead role in regional negotiations with the Americans over a new multilateral treaty on fishing as well as the Economic Partnership Agreement with the Europeans. Although the EPA talks were scuttled by Europe, the fish agreement with the Americans was successful mainly, observers say, through the able leadership of Solomon Island negotiators like Ambassador Robert Sisilo who until his return to Honiara was the Pacific Islands Forum’s trade representative in the World Trade Organisation in Geneva before he was seconded as Foreign Affairs Secretary in the government of Nauru. Lilo would know whether the people of Solomon Islands shared this enthusiasm during the polls. He is small in built but a giant, critics say, when it comes to politics. Whether that will keep him in the job as PM, the voters will decide. NEW CALEDONIA New Caledonia is the other Melanesian nation that will be going to the polls in 2014. Although not a fully independent nation yet, this year’s elections will determine whether the French territory would become a fully autonomous island nation. Under the Noumea Accord, 3/5 of the New Caledonian Congress after the 2014 elections will need to endorse the holding of a referendum on the transfer of the remaining sovereign powers of defence, foreign policy, police, courts and currency from Paris to Noumea. Views are divided on this, of course. The indigenous Kanak political party, the Front de Liberation Nationale Kanaka et Socialiste (FLNKS) will go for full independence from France, while anti-independence parties like the RPCR would prefer some French links to be maintained. VANUATU In Vanuatu, the government of Prime Minister Moana Carcasses Kalosil will be looking forward to celebrating its first anniversary in power on March 23. To last this long is rare in Vanuatu politics as many governments and prime ministers have reigned and fell in many confidence motions in parliament. Working at retaining his numbers in government is a constant, continuing efforts for Kalosil who became the first naturalised citizen of Vanuatu to become Prime Minister in March 2013. Although not new in politics, the Tahitian born politician attempted to inject a fresh brand of leadership in his first few days as PM. He launched his list of 68 things he needed to do in his first 100 days in office. Among these were the recognition of West Papua, the return of public land that he claimed was illegally sold by previous governments and stopping the illegal sale of Vanuatu passports. Kalosil, however, needs no reminding that to survive as PM in Vanuatu, he would need to constantly watch his back. Interviewed by this magazine about political survival in Vanuatu politics in mid-2013, Kalosil outlined his survival strategy: “Many times a Prime Minister will form a government promising a few things but when he doesn’t deliver, this is the time backbenchers will move. I don’t make promises. I have a reputation for a yes means yes, a no means no.” islandsbusiness/2014/1/cover-story/2014-year-of-elect-ions-for-melanesia/
Posted on: Tue, 28 Jan 2014 00:25:16 +0000
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