~ 2015 Elections and The 25% voting rule: Who Wins?~ Section 134 (2) states that “A candidate for an election to the office of President shall be deemed to have been duly elected where, there been more than two candidates for the election- (a) he has the highest number of votes cast at the election; and (b) he has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election each of at least two- thirds of all the states in Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), there will be more than two Presidential candidates in this February contest therefore the above stated section of the Nigerian constitution will apply for there to be a duly elected President. In some polling units and wards, the certainty is guaranteed even before the first ballot is cast that either the Presidential candidates of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) Mr. Goodluck Jonathan or the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) General MuhammaduBuhariwill win in the Valentine’s Day Presidential contest come February 14th 2015. But the trick in the presidential contest is not actually the mood or emotions which might beconcentrated in a particular geopolitical region or state but actually a broad national arithmetic application which determines the overall winner of that race. There is no doubt that some person(s) have already envisaged change come February elections depending on which spectrum they gaze, the truth is actually in the effect that never before since the return of the country to democracy in 1999 that the Presidential race has been this close to call, hence the feeling that there will be change of leadership at the centre. Presidential Elections records shows that PDP has always had an easy sail in all Presidential elections with the closest an opposition challenger would get coming in 2011 when General Buhari running on the platform of Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) pulled an impressive just over twelve (12) million votes. Numerically that was impressive but represented just 31.98% of total votes cast compared to the winner Mr. Jonathan who garnered 58.89% of total votes cast. As a matter of records and statistics, Alliance for Democracy (AD) – All People’s Party (APP) joint ticket Presidential candidate Chief OluFalae holds the record of highest percentage of votes a second place candidate garnered. He pulled over 11 million votes casted which represented about 37.22% of total votes cast. Falae’s votes return may have been impressive due to the fact that there wasn’t an incumbent President. The over 12 million votes Buhari got in 2011 may have been a little more than Falae’s by just a million votes but still it represents just over 31% of total votes cast against 37.22% that Falae got. There might be a lot of heartbreak in the awaiting after the February Presidential election results are announced most especially for those who are clamouring for change in Aso Rock. This will be so because while the man in Zamfara State or Yobe State might be sure to vote let’s say Buhari, he still needs huge help from a man in AkwaIbom or Delta State for Buhari to sit in Aso Rock. This is the little trick of the 25% vote rule that will certainly puncture the call for change. The build up to February elections is taking the same shape like the Ekiti State gubernatorial race. The tempo the rest of Nigerians received from the media and social networks was that Former Gov. KayodeFayemi will win by a landslide. Even some twitter and Facebook warriors were so certain that Fayemi was just waiting for a second swearing in ceremony. But the rude shock that came out from the Ekiti polls reverberated across Nigeria that political analyst struggled to explain the thorough pounding Fayemi received in the hands of Gov. Fayosewhich now resulted to the now famous coining of the phrase “Stomach infrastructure”. The simple lessons from Ekiti summed up that elections are not won the pages of newspapers or social media but actually those who come out to cast votes. Statistics show that most political commentators on social media are elite who don’t actually vote on Election Day and maybe even out of the country on Election Day in far way Dubai or nearby Ghana for holidays or simply safety reasons to avoid possible election chaos. So the actual voters are market women, artisans, local farmers who don’t have sufficient education or access to social media platforms where this change debates are raging but who have actually felt the physical impact of Mr. President’s transformation agenda be it agricultural transformation, or they have used the transformed good road networks or have simply used the cheap train fares to get their produce to the market. This is where the opposition messages get s defeated. This article will seek to explore the possibility of APC winning the February Presidential elections. This first part will examine the South West geopolitical zone because it is understood that its voting strength of over 14 million registered voters tilted the opposition APC running mate slot in its favour, despite the fact the many believed since the zone has already produced the President for 8 years, some expected the party to have zoned the running mate slot to the South East which has never produced a President or Vice President while other analyst thought Rivers State Gov. RotimiAmaechi should have in particularly gotten the slot considering his boldness to fight the incumbent President even when they both hail from the same zone and that the South-South should have at least been compensated with the Vice Presidential slot if they are to lose the President. But the APC National Leader Bola Tinubu had other plans of his own as it was understood that Buhari had conceded the slot to him to either assume the running mate slot himself or nominate his choice. Since a fierce opposition to a possible Muslim – Muslim Presidential ticket was already building up, it seems it was a wise political decision for Tinubu to step aside and rather nominate his former Attorney General Professor YemiOsinbajo to represent his interest in a possible APC Presidency. Considering the highest number of votes cast required by the constitution for a candidate to emerge victorious in a Presidential contest and also the 25% of votes in at least two – thirds of the states including the FCT, the daunting question is whether Tinubu was right in his political decision to retain the APC running mate slot to the South West despite when a religious dimension on the ticket didn’t favour him. Let us break the south west geopolitical zone down starting in an alphabetical order: South-West ◾Ekiti: this state is comfortably in the full grasp of PDP and considering that Gov. Fayose is a grassroots politician and also an efficient and effective mobilizer, it will be foolhardy to assume that President Jonathan will not garner the constitutional required 25% votes cast in Ekiti State or even the outright majority votes cast. Fayose will deliver Ekiti to PDP and that is as clear as day light. Even when the state was under the clutches of APC and Fayemi in 2011, Mr. Jonathan still got a majority votes cast. And Fayose has sworn to deliver Ekiti to PDP in February, a promise few can doubt him for because he has done so before last June governorship elections. ◾Lagos: this is where the bulk of the South West voting strength comes from and it is on this strength thatTinubu negotiated to retain the Vice Presidential slot to the zone. With over 6 million registered voters in Lagos, it will be reckless for any Presidential candidate to overlook the votes from this state. Even if one party secures the outright majority votes, any votes garner by the second placed party will still prove vital for the constitutionally required highest number of votes cast in the overall elections. For the sake of courtesy and academic exercise, let’s concede Lagos to APC on the strength of Tinubu, though the 2011 Presidential poll showed that PDP and Jonathan got an overwhelming 66% of the votes cast in Lagos while APC (then ACN) that won the governorship, its Presidential candidate had a paltry 21% votes which was short of the constitutionally required 25%. The truth is that Lagosians are well informed voters and with Mr. President’s transformation agenda touching their lives including the rail infrastructures which has lightened their transportation burden, it is hugely unlikely that Mr. Jonathan will lose Lagos state, and even if he were to lose Lagos state he will still definitely garner a respectable number of votes cast which will be too close to call. Hence it is beyond doubt that Jonathan will surpass the constitutional required 25% in Lagos, it is just a question of how much votes he get to further strength his claim on Section 134 (2)A. It is further worth noting that aside the 1999 Presidential elections where there was no incumbency factor, the PDP has always secured the constitutional required 25% votes in Lagos, it is rather the opposition party that has always repeatedly failed to meet up with the 25% votes required by the constitution even though the opposition party has always won the governorship seat for Lagos. It is therefore too obvious not to give Jonathan 25% votes in Lagos and even the outright majority. ◾Ogun: the state is under the control of APC in the person of Gov. IbikunleAmosun having taken over from Gbenga Daniel a PDP governor who ruled from 2003 to 2011. Even if APC may likely retain control of the state in the governorship polls, it is highly unlikely that Mr. President will not garner the constitutional required 25% of votes cast come February. The worst case scenario will be APC winning the outright majority in the state but Mr. Jonathan securing a 25% constitutional requirement. As earlier stated, the Presidential elections is a tricky arithmetic application that will see short-lived celebrations by the opposition in some pockets of states but an overall defeat in the general compilation and announcement of results. Mr. Jonathan won the majority votes in Ogun State in 2011 and should put up a good performance in February. ◾Ondo: the Sunshine State has always been under the care of the ruling PDP since 2003 before the current governor Olusegun Mimiko himself a PDP man moved to Labour Party (LP) in 2007 to contest for the governorship position for the sake of platform. The whole world knows that Mimiko soul was still in PDP even before he officially decided to decamp back to the party. Mimiko is a proven grassroots politician and has an enviable track record of delivering in elections. PDP should definitely count on him to deliver Ondo State wholly to Mr. President in February. Jonathan scored 80% in Ondo in 2011 with Buhari (CPC) scoring a paltry 2.44% while Ribadu (ACN) came a distant second with 15% total votes cast. The combined vote cast of the opposition wasn’t even sufficient to meet the constitutionally required 25% votes in at least two-thirds of states and FCT. Ondo should be a straight cruise for Mr. President. ◾Osun: the state of Osun is another state in the full control of the opposition APC. The incumbent governor Rauf Aregbesola just won re-elections last August. Osun state was the only state in the South West that Mr. Jonathan suffered defeat in the 2011 Presidential elections. Rauf, a political son of the National Leader of the APC having served Tinubu as Commissioner is a strong grassroots politician and is highly favoured to win Osun next February for Gen. Buhari. But just like 2011 where Jonathan pulled 37% of the votes, political analyst are still banking on Jonathan to garner the constitutionally required 25% total votes cast in the state of Osun this February. ◾Oyo: the state with amala politics. Just like with most other South west states, Oyo has also been in the hands of the PDP. Another interesting fact worth noting is that Oyo has always backed PDP except in 1999. Last Presidential elections, Jonathan got over 56% of total votes cast even though the opposition took the governorship seat. It is hugely unlikely that Mr. President will not garner the constitutionally required 25% of total votes cast. Summary In summary, of the 4,613,717 total votes cast in the 2011 Presidential elections, the PDP and Mr. Jonathan garnered 2,786,417 votes in that zone. This amount represents over 60% of the total votes won by Jonathan in the South West, and meanwhile Bola Tinubu has been the self-acclaimed leader of the West for many years now. It is crystal clear that the plan by Tinubu to retain the opposition Vice Presidential slot was born out of selfish consideration that if he doesn’t get it for himself then his boy represents his interest. Therefore even though the south west possess the second highest voters strength amongst the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria, there isn’t any electoral statistics to prove that Tinubu can deliver wholly the over 14 million votes harvest in that zone ~ To be continued Diana-Abasi Alphonsus Udoh A political analyst and commentator write from Copenhagen.
Posted on: Tue, 06 Jan 2015 23:30:25 +0000
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