2015 JAN 22 0840gmt: South Pacific: 220 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OFPAPEETE, TAHITI: TC 07P-Niko: A 220443Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEST OF THE SYSTEM. Warning 4/JTWC: REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 147.3W. TROPICAL CYCLONE TC 07P (NIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS COMPACT CENTRAL CONVECTIVE NATURE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 220443Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATION AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS BASED ON A COMPLETE ASSESSMENT OF ALL FIXING AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC NIKO IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED, BUT BUILDING, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AS THE STR CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, TC 07P WILL CONTINUE ITS POLEWARD TRACK AGAINST THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STR WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW MECHANISM, REACHING A PEAK OF 65 KTS BY TAU 36. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT TC NIKO TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS VWS INCREASES AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT RAPIDLY DECLINES TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.// NNNN JMV File/JTWC: 0715011912 114S1535W 15 0715011918 116S1529W 20 0715012000 120S1522W 25 0715012006 126S1515W 35 0715012012 131S1510W 40 0715012018 137S1505W 45 0715012100 143S1501W 45 0715012106 150S1499W 45 0715012112 157S1495W 50 0715012118 164S1488W 50 0715012200 172S1485W 50 0715012206 181S1476W 50 NNNN Cheers, PH.
Posted on: Thu, 22 Jan 2015 08:42:27 +0000
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