2015 is for Alliances, Alliances, and More Alliances. What a Golden Opportunity? By Keketouma Songa: An epiphany (from the ancient Greek ἐπιφάνεια, epiphaneia, manifestation, striking appearance) is an experience of sudden and striking realization. Generally the term is used to describe scientific breakthrough, religious or philosophical discoveries, but it can apply in any situation in which an enlightening realization allows a problem or situation to be understood from a new and deeper perspective. Epiphanies are studied by psychologists and other scholars, particularly those attempting to study the process of innovation. I got my epiphany over the past few months interviewing several veteran SLPP, APC, PMDC and independent politicians who are frustrated with the current state of affairs in our country. I listened to them analyze many issues including the lost opportunities since 2008, how and why Ebola has ravaged the nation, and why the country needs a fresh start. Some recounted the parties histories. The SLPP folks explained their resurrection in 1991-95 (after 3 dacades of hibernation; a separate essay on this is in the pipeline). I pushed them to also give me their candid opinions about various personalities, aspirants and interests groups, the alliances that can be built, but also their somber assessment of our chances in 2017 if internal wrangling continues. Today, I focus on their views about how SLPP might come back to power, or fumble and score own-goals. I debated various options/scenarios about alliances that are possible/probable to unite the interest groups. Some of the scenarios I heard may not be what I or some of you might like, but if they can make the party win, then so be it. So this essay is exploring some of those alliances and what are the trade offs; some could create victory for all, or defeat for all. I also hint at a Paopa or KKYM break-away (which is whispered in some corners). It is not a recipe or strategy, just food for thought. As we all know, politics is a complicated calculus of several options, scenarios and possibilities, and usually results in strange (if not bizarre) bedfellows. After all, politics is the art of the possible, and ultimately it is about WINNING. Scenario 1 - Bio Led Alliance Again. Some party officials believe that Bio could be flag bearer again because his delegates will remain loyal to him and the NEC is full of his appointees. There is also expectation that Bio will choose a new Northerner as running mate. But putting Bio forward as FB raises a very fundamental legal question for the SLPP i.e. It sets a legal precedent that any future flag bearer has the right to run as FB more than once. This is fine as long as the party elite understand and accept that this is the new normal. Such a precedent is not for one man but is equally applicable to all others in the future. What is good for the Goose is good for the Ganda. My fear is that many Paoparistas want this as an exceptional privilege for Bio only (I can assure them that is fools errand and I can see litigations and injunctions in the offing). Within this context, the Paopa strategy therefore is to stay with loyal delegates and leave all the other aspirants to split the rest. The result will be similar to 2012 when over 60% of the delegates rejected Bio but he was made flag bearer. Is this likely? Many think so because all other aspirants are busy fighting each other while the Paoparistas remain united. Just read the SLPP papers the Metro, Global Times and others, and see them ravage everybody who has declared interest in contesting or is a potential aspirant (This is MAD, Mutually Assured Destruction). Of course APC is also paying cash to encourage this internal fight. But I checked with an APC strategist about the prospect of facing Bio again. I sensed the visceral negative reaction each time I mentioned Bio, so I joked that APC was afraid of Bio. He could not stop laughing and said that was how they fooled you the last time and the man crumbled in front of us and lost all the North, Western Area and Kono. In his view, Bio is still toxic in the North and in the Western Area, and mistrusted by the international community. In 2012 Paopa combined with Abas Bundu, Kadie Sesay and others did not yield any significant votes for SLPP in the North and among female voters. It begs the bigger question, what has Bio done or accomplished in the past two-years that makes him more marketable now than in 2012? Many within the SLPP and the diplomatic community also now blame him for making the opposition ineffective. A Bio flag bearer will be great for himself and the paoparistas, but we all lose in the end even against a weakened APC. Some also believe that PAOPA might break-away and form a new party if Bio loses the FB contest. Scenario 2 - AKK-KKY Alliance Some school of thought believe that a Keili-Yumkella alliance could beat the APC because it will attract independents and some APC voters. Pa Zoker surprised??!! They also said that if AKK-KKY-JOB-Alie Bangura-Karpen-Tejansie unite now, they can compensate the cost of a Poapa-break-away with Northern and Western Area support and beat the APC. It is possible that folks who left the SLPP party because of Bios style of politics plus many independents and some disgruntled APC folks will cross over too to join this coalition. They felt that even Ngor Charles and Usu Boi might forge an alliance with a non-PaoPa coalition to defeat APC. One called it a New SLPP. Uncle Andrew and KKY are well respected professionals and likable gentlemen, and they can work with folks in both parties. The two of them backed by JOB and the others could win. Through some friends, I cross-checked this scenario with an APC party stalwart. He gave me a lecture on Salone politics when I asked his opinion about our fratricide in SLPP. He said APC is happy about this, because they gain from a divided SLPP. This APC tactician explained that in Salone political football APC knows how to win and SLPP knows how to score own-goals. The man called out the names of 8-rumored potential contenders. and dismissed 5 outright. He said APC, considered a Keili and Yumkella package a serious challenge, but Bio would be a welcome nock-out again after the 444 victory in 2012. Andrew has been campaigning for some time, has a good following in parts of both the Western area, South and South-East. But his support in the North is doubtful. He said in the case of Yumkella, they know that he is also strong in the western area, among professionals and has part of the Northern support base. They find it interesting how strong the KKY support is across the country considering that he is not even on the ground yet. However, there is still time to see how strong Yumkellas support is with the grassroots. It seems that both gentlemen working together with some understanding can rebrand SLPP. I hope these two gentlemen are open-minded and listening. Scenario 3 - JOB Led Alliance Many recognize that JOB has more practical political experience than any of the aspirants so far. However, JOBs support is confined to a very narrow base in Kailahun, and he is very toxic in the North and Western Area. They believe that Bio will undermine him (since Paopas believe he undermined Bio in 2012, especially because he mismanaged the one billion leones candidates fee that was meant as seed money for the flag bearer). Some speculated that an alliance between JOB and some others could help him in the North and Western Area. Many others have discounted this. The latter point out that in any election, the personal likability or appeal of a candidate matters. JOBs challenges in the North and Western area match those of Bios, and no Running mate can improve that impression (he will be hard to sell on any ticket). His chances of winning a national election as FB is doubtful. However, He could be valuable to any FB and to the party. Several view JOBs interest in the FB as a bargaining posture to be a running mate. But beyond Kailahun, can he really bring more votes to a ticket? The paoparistas will undermine any ticket that has JOB on it. Scenario 4 - Bio-Yumkella Alliance A few weeks ago, a new idea for the SLPP has come from a moderate PAOPArista cousin of mine. He said to me, JOB, AOT and AKK are now attacking KKY as they attack us...... But the enemy of my enemy is my friend. So a totally out-of-the-box new scenario according to him, is for the party to get KKY to make a deal with Bio. You give the devil his dues as they say in philosophy. Both of them could work out key principles of the alliance and bring their supporters and their party together. Hmmmm. I salivated at the idea (after all Na Chrismess Tem Dis). I wish the world and life itself were so simple and we can all sing Kumbaya and Happy New Year We Nor Die Oh...... Several folks in the party see this as a strong alliance against the APC. Of course PaoPa expects KKY to be running mate (I doubt that KKY will ever accept this). But what if KKY is FB then Bio (the kingmaker) can be Chairman of the party and eventually Speaker of Parliament (this is the real epiphany). The latter two positions makes it possible for a KKY-AKK ticket or another Southerner/South-Eastern can be running mate. The latter gives Bio a platform to rebrand his image and he has age on his side to run in 2027. This idea saves everybody time and money, KKY gets the flagbearer-ship immediately in the 2015 convention, he-AKK-Bio rebrand the party, mobilize the grassroots base, and with Bios help they focus 3 years to unify the party and at last we have a real opposition party. Is this possible? Remember that Uncle Andrew tirelessly supported Bio once he was declared FB, and he helped to write his manifesto. Also, Bios campaign office was in KKYs mothers property for three years. So, it is not impossible for this partnership to be created if egos are managed properly; then everybody wins and SLPP captures state house, and possibly parliament to boot. Scenario 5 - The Third Force Break Away Ngor Charles was treated badly in the party and he broke away, and he took 18% of the SLPP votes, and we all lost. Chief Norman was humiliated as well and that hurt the SLPP base further in 2007. APC saw the same fate in the 1996 elections with four splinter groups when some were not happy, and they all lost. Can some others, apart from Bio, break away from SLPP and take more votes away? As a result of the Pa Kabba-Timbo- KKY-Northern bashing in the past few weeks on BBI and SLPP forums, I talked to a strong KKYM member, he said put yourself in KKYs shoes....If You are being bashed, slapped, insulted, denigrated by some of your own, what will you do?. Option one, pull out from the competition, be disgruntled and cry uncle. This is what some people hope for, meaning that he should be roughed up through negative propaganda, insults and even physical threats so he would cut and run (and not even declare). KKYs close friends and family tell some of us that he will never cut and run (it is not the Yumkella way). But some KKY Movement Members believe that option-2 is the Charles Margai/Norman solution. In fact some independents and some from APC who are in the KKY movement prefer that he creates a new party or Third Force (as they call it). Some party elders worry about this too. Indeed, Pa Sam Zoker is right that the FB is not about inheritances or is by coercion. But it is also true that the history of the party did not start in 2007. The Margais, Summners, Dumbers, Thorlu Banguras, Manna Kpakas, Yillas, Sillahs and Yumkellas and others suffered for three decades because of the party. They financed the party, their properties were burnt down under the dictatorship, and their parents were repeatedly incarcerated/imprisoned in Mafanta, Pademba Road and CID because of the party. Also, in1991-1995 their families came back together to revive the party even before Tejan Kabba was approached to be FB in October 1995 (Kabba was with the NPRC). They did not only rebuild the party, but gave us two victories plus parliament to boot. At that time JOB, Bio and many others were either in the New Breed Party, NPRC or NUP Party trying to replace SLPP. Humiliating such families or marginalizing them and bashing them now is not the way to win in 2017 (it did work in 2007 either). We must come together as one through alliances. The political pragmatists on the ground understand that if KKY campaigns well and hard, many expect him to gain serious support and will be a formidable force that can help the party. If he breaks away in 2016 because of internal wrangling, how will this impact the SLPP? This is for another essay, because my holiday guests are at the door and the kids are restlessly waiting for their turkey dinner. Suffice it to say that a Third Force break-away is still possible 3 years from show time. Happy New Year and Stay tuned. It is time for peace and alliances plus more alliances.
Posted on: Mon, 29 Dec 2014 17:12:44 +0000
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