22.12.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection: Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health. Insubstantial changes have been in the volcanic eruption in Holuhraun over the last few weeks. The lava is now flowing inside a closed channel to the eastern edge of the lava field, about 15 km from the crater. Lava is also running to the north. Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong, but it has though somewhat decreased. The strongest earthquake since noon on Friday, 19. December, was magnitude M4,5 yesterday, 21. December, at 16:12 on the southern rim of the caldera. Six earthquakes larger then M4,0 were detected since Friday and about 25 earthquakes between M3,0-4,0. In total about 135 earthquakes were detected in Bardarbunga since noon on Friday. Eighteen earthquakes were detected in the dyke and around the eruption site in Holuhraun since Friday. All smaller then magnitude M2,0. GPS measurements near northern Vatnajokull glacier show continuing slow subsidence towards Bardarbunga. The rate of the subsidence has slowly decreased. Telecommunications with the GPS station in Bardarbunga caldera have not been established yet. Due to bad weather, over the last few weeks, scientists have not able to travel to Bardarbunga. It is unlikely that any attempt will be made to fix the GPS station until after the holidays. Air quality: Today (Monday) gas pollution is expected in the southeast parts. Tomorrow (Tuesday) gas pollution might be felt southwest of the eruption site. The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer). Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page. Instructions: People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse. Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites. The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio. Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email [email protected]. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it. Three scenarios are considered most likely: The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops. Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier. Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall. Other scenarios cannot be excluded. From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’. The next meeting will be held on Tuesday 30 of December. The Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection has held 80 meetings since the seismic activity started on the 16th of August. The Scientific Advisory Boards wishes all its’ dedicated readers a Merry Christmas.
Posted on: Mon, 22 Dec 2014 13:00:33 +0000
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