2ND Call/Idea Latest computer guidance has not been so friendly to the snow lovers over the past 12-18 hours. To find out why, and our 2nd idea with our first snow projection numbers read the disco below. We have been seeing a general agreement for a storm track along the East Coast, that in most cases would favor a very robust snow storm that would put down ample amounts of snow back in our region... however, over the past 12-18 hours computer guidance has been honing in on the idea that energy from the Northern branch will be digging in too soon, and as a result become more progressive as it does so. In short, this would allow more dry air to work into our system and cut off our moisture relatively quickly and bring more of a mixing concern for areas just South and East of Lebanon County= end result lower snow totals. We will now need the moisture (low pressure) in the Gulf of Mexico to become stronger than projected, to win out the Northern stream energy, and in return set the stage for more robust snow totals back here in Lebanon County. Almost always in these set ups the Northern stream energy is a big player, but more times then not the moisture racing North from the Gulf wins out the fight IF it is stronger than modeled. As a results of the latest trends, this storm will unfortunately require much more Now-Casting updates than previous storms. If you are a snow lover, cheer on a deeper area of Low pressure (Stronger coastal low) to win out the Northern Stream and as a result, bring back the higher end snow totals. If you are a weather nerd like myself, keep your eyes glued to the Gulf and watch the convection fire up throughout the night... the stronger the low gets, better odds for higher end snow totals here on Saturday. Based off the latest trends, as it is currently modeled a general 2-5 is a fair call for now with snowfall numbers. Timing looks to be from Early Saturday morning between (1-4 AM) Lasting into Saturday afternoon/ evening... out of here between 3-6pm. Final call will be out Friday afternoon/evening. Still some wiggle room with the specifics of this storm system, where snow totals could go up, or very will be lowered again depending on how strong the coastal storm becomes. After this storm, all eyes then turn to our next potential system for early next week. ~Justin
Posted on: Thu, 22 Jan 2015 22:18:23 +0000
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