4pm EST Storm Update: In layman terms this map shows the 4pm current surface map. Overlaid are three areas where were concerned about this storm. The red outlined area in Eastern PA to South Jersey shows the highest risk area for this storm to way underperform, especially from Philly to Atlantic City. In the yellow shaded areas the 24-36 epic historic storm projections from the TV media/NYC Mayor are in serious jeopardy with 10-14 more likely in NYC. From Connecticut to Boston the storm remains potentially historic with no real changes for 15-30+. Were not going to get into Modelology discussions here in great detail but fundamentally the two major models shifted a tad further out to sea and decreased the available moisture. The storm developed a bit further off North Carolina today as well. Thats one thing really missing here - you dont see the huge sources of moisture in the Middle Atlantic so thats not good for Eastern PA to South Jersey. Weve added up the available moisture for this storm according to the enhanced US GFS and Euro models with varying snow ratios from 10:1 (common in the 28-32F range) all the way to 20:1 (common for temps in the 15-19 range). On our surface map weve highlighted the max precip equivalent for major cities in the Northeast to give you a sense of what the two most widely accepted models are saying (see black shaded area in the map). Much less than what everyone is hoping for as many are hanging their hats on the NAM model that stalls this storm off the coast too long - our opinion. The NAM also assumes this upper disturbance in the Midwest will catch up in time to save the day for Eastern PA to Philly to South Jersey but it wont until the storm is already up near Massachusetts. NAM lovers were hoping this upper level disturbance would slow the storm down much sooner while it still had the potential to give Philly and South Jersey the 1-2 foot amounts. That is very unlikely at this stage as it just doesnt get here in time. New England - gets pummeled. NYC less than epic by a lot. Philly - more depression for snow lovers. When your winds come around to the Northwest from Lehigh Valley to Philly to South Central NJ - game over for the heavy snow totals. Worst of storm will be the next 12-15 hours. STAY SAFE!!!!! Monitor radar/snow/lightning development at weathertrends360/Maps/Interactive
Posted on: Mon, 26 Jan 2015 22:31:04 +0000
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