5-10 of snow predicted for Philadelphia, with up to two feet of snow along the Central NJ coastline. Clipper snows are with us today and the energy from this clipper will go into a storm system that will intensify and track up the East Coast starting later today. While it will snow off and on today for many of us, the bulk of this storm occurs late tonight and early tomorrow morning before snows taper off after midday tomorrow. Our snowfall call has not changed dramatically in Philadelphia (unless you think going from 9 to 10 as the top end is dramatic). The sharp cutoff in snows from west to east through the region will be pretty dramatic - 50 miles will separate a decent snowstorm from a very heavy snowstorm. The thinking, as has been all along, is that the Shore will get the most snowfall in this storm. On top of the snows at the Shore, gusty winds will create blizzard or near blizzard conditions. At the Shore - travel really is not recommended after 5 or 6 PM tonight (although conditions will not be at their worst until after Midnight). Snowfall across parts of New Jersey could fall at a 2/hr clip between Midnight and 8 AM in spots. Some steadier to heavier clips of snow could reach Philadelphia but the core of the heaviest snows continues to look on track for the Shore communities. Model trends last night nudged lower for Philadelphia in most guidance (GFS increased a little bit). The Euro slashed snows for the city from 12-16 in yesterdays midday run to 8-10 last night. 36 hours ago, it had 24 in the city. An average of the big four models gives the city 7 based on last nights runs, down from 9.8 yesterday and 9 on Saturday night. In terms of timing/breakdown, worst of the storm occurs after Midnight tonight and into tomorrow morning before tapering off.
Posted on: Mon, 26 Jan 2015 11:58:00 +0000
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