5 days, 1 hour, 38 minutes and 33 seconds until Iditarod 2014. Who’s going to win? By Danny Seavey I’m fairly certain it won’t be me. I’m not making excuses, but I’m under strict orders to go slow, especially in the beginning. Don’t be alarmed if I’m in dead last the first couple of days. If only teams from our family raced, I’d get third. I’m going to have to pay for my next truck. That being said, I think I’m almost ready…hopefully. I was starting to catch some crud on Saturday, I guess the stress was catching up with me, but my mom’s been feeding me these less-than-pleasant tasting Thieves capsules, and I seemed to have dodged a bullet. The last thing I need now is the flu. Overall, this is the most competitive field weve seen in a long time. There are ten teams with a very legitimate shot at winning, and that doesnt count everyone who’s won in the last three years. This is by no means a top ten in order, as the effort required attempting to win often leaves very good teams finishing poorly. Meanwhile the conservative types finish well, although they were never in contention to win. These are the teams I feel are a threat to win. A lot has been made of Aliy Zirkle/Allen Moore and Martin/Rohn Buser winning all the mid-distance races. Zirkle/Moore won the Copper Basin, Yukon Quest, and Quest 300. While certainly a good showing, none of those races was very competitive (especially after Brent Sass went all NFL), so its not much of an indicator. Busers showing was a little flashier, winning the Kusko 300, Denali Doubles, and Knik 200 over tough fields, but the racing style required to win those races (full speed) doesnt translate well to longer races. Only twice in 19 years has the Kusko winner won the Iditarod, despite the fact it’s the most competitive mid-distance race. Mitch and Dallas skipped all the pre-season events, feeling they could do a better job training at home. 1) Mitch Seavey – Only four mushers have ever repeated, but his team looks incredible, and its very deep. Seven finishers and two dogs that were dropped from 2013 return, along with seven new three-year-olds off Matt’s Puppy Team. Im fairly certain hes the only musher with 16 dogs he wants to take vs. filling in with B team dogs, and he has Conways whole Jr. Iditarod winning team for backups. Hes also gained a lot of confidence from last years win, and I expect a powerful title defense. 2) Aliy Zirkle – Her kennel is sporting the best resume in mushing right now, with back-to-back 2nd place Iditarod finishes, and Allens back-to-back Yukon Quest wins (Mitch and Dallas have separate kennels). However, you only get so many Magic Carpet Rides, runs when you have the team and the luck to be in position to win. Aliy hasnt been able to take advantage of those chances. Only one musher has ever been second twice and then gone on to win. Any guesses who? 3) Jeff King - Somehow manages to post top finishes regardless of whether he has a top dog team. 20 top-12 finishes in 21 years pretty well sums it up. He was surprisingly good in a rebuilding year last year, and I expect him to be much better this year. 4) Dallas Seavey - Hes won both the Quest and Iditarod maximizing hand-me-down dog teams. For the first time (including 2012) he has a team of dogs that is championship caliber. He’s raised them all, and trained them in his system for three years now. Hell no longer have to rely on the come-from-behind strategy, though may choose to stick to whats been working. 5 & 6) Ray Redington Jr. and Aaron Burmeister- Theyre almost there. Im hoping not yet:) 7) Robert Sorlie - The Norwegian has two wins in four tries. Expect him to jump out to an early lead, and see how long he can hold it. The hard, fast trail conditions this year strongly favor his style of racing. 8 & 9) Joar Ulsom and Nick Petit - I hesitate to give these guys winning credit until I see another good race. They both had awesome races last year, and will certainly be in the mix. 10) Martin Buser - I said last year he had a top dog team, and would have been very scary if not for the run-straight-to-Rohn experiment. He tried to sell the I fed them bad water storyline after last year’s team plummeted from 1st to 17th. Well know how he truly felt about the strategy if he tries it again. BTW, a big thank you to the Buser Family for hosting the Junior Iditarod at a very busy time around the kennel. R) Ralph Johannessen - Like Joar last year, this is a very good Norwegian musher switching continents. Hes the clear favorite for Rookie of the Year, and easily could be in the mix to win. (sorry Nathan Schroeder, you picked a bad year to go for ROTY) Notable exceptions: DeeDee Jonrowe - Shes having some of the best races of her career, but I dont think shes really trying to win. Like Sonny Lindner, she always looks great, and never pushes. Jake Berkowitz - Terrie Hanke got blasted for excluding him from her top 10, but Im going to do the same. He lost a lot of street cred with another fizzle out last year, and hes going to have to prove he has the drive to win. Theres no doubt he has the dog team, but its going to take some heroics to win over this field, and Jakes not been that guy. I didnt have room for guys like Ken Anderson, John Baker, Paul Gebhardt, the Smyths, Hans Gatt, Jessie Royer and Hugh Neff. That’s how deep this field is. Answer: Susan Butcher was second twice before winning in 1986
Posted on: Mon, 24 Feb 2014 17:41:47 +0000
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