500 PM HST WED OCT 22 2014 THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE OBSCURED ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REMAIN AT 2.5/35 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE OBSERVED IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SHEARED SYSTEM...THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT. ANA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...335/10 KT. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON A SIMILAR MOTION INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS IT IS STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST EDGE OF DEEP HIGH PRESSURE. ANA WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...CAUSING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ANA WILL THEN ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA BY DAY 5. THE FORECAST TRACK RUNS ALONG THE RIGHT HAND SIDE OF A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WITH INPUT FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTIONS CENTER...THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. ANA HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY TODAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS SHIFTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. THE SHEAR MAGNITUDE REMAINS UNDER 15 KT ACCORDING TO A 00Z CIMSS ANALYSIS AND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY AS ANA TRAVELS BETWEEN A RIDGE ALOFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAK LOW ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. ANOMALOUSLY WARM OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE CURRENT 28.5C TO 26.5C...ACCORDING A RECENT NASA SPORT ANALYSIS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE ON DAYS 4 AND 5 AS ANA COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND IS LIKELY ABSORBED BY A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF SHIPS AND THE CONSENSUS BUT IS BEING HELD SLIGHTLY LOWER DUE TO WHAT IS DEEMED AS EXCESSIVE CONTRIBUTIONS BY THE HWRF AND GFDL. THE DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WAS CONDUCTED IN COORDINATION WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 24.8N 167.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 25.8N 168.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 26.9N 169.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 27.9N 170.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 29.2N 169.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 33.1N 165.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 42.6N 149.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 28/0000Z 49.7N 139.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER WROE MC
Posted on: Thu, 23 Oct 2014 02:47:40 +0000
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