7/14/2013 Closing in 7 days: LOCK. Closing in 7-15 days: LOCK Closing in 15-30 days: LOCK Closing in 30+ days: LOCK Intraday volatility continues, it has now been four weeks with price swinging through the day that generate4s re-pricing almost every hour or two from some lenders. The MBS market opened better this morning with the 10 yr note yield down to 2.54% frm 2.58% yesterday. By late morning the 10 lost its edge, mortgage prices rolled over and most lenders issued new prices. One lender than went on to improve when the MBS market showed a little improvement. There just is little reason now for mortgage originators to try and squeeze out miniscule improvements, the odds are way against that kind of strategy. Another Fed official out today talking; Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser, who has opposed the Fed’s current round of asset purchases, said the central bank should begin tapering its $85B in monthly bond buying in September and end the unorthodox stimulus by year-end. “I don’t want to do it all at once, but I think we should begin to taper very soon and hopefully end it by the end of this year,” Plosser said today in an interview in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “That would be a healthy thing for the economy. We can do it gradually.” Getting extremely frustrating to have all these Fedsters out talking. Shut up; the only voice that is important is Bernanke’s and he seems to talk out of both sides of his mouth recently sending markets into volatile movements. This morning the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index was expected to be unchanged from 84.1 at the end of June, as reported the index fell to 83.9. NO big deal. This week the DJIA ended +510, NASDAQ +121, S&P +49. 10 yr note yield down 14 bps, 30 yr MBS prices +158 bps. Crude oil +$3.12 and gold +$68.00. For all the talk from all of the talkers at the Fed, the 10 yr note will find resistance at 2.50% to 2.48%. Mortgage rates are about where they are finding their own technical resistance at 103.09 (presently 103.22). We continue to recommend locking any loans that are ready to close, even those not ready should be considered at good levels given the current fundamentals, the strong stock market and all the chatter that the Fed will begin tapering soon, some Fed officials calling for the beginning in Sept. Once the Fed takes a little of the buying away markets will have to absorb the debt the Fed will no longer take out of the market. Prices will have to decline and rates edge higher; it is difficult to construct a scenario that will lower rates are supply increases as long as there is no crisis that pushes everything else off the table driving investors into safety----and that is unpredictable; go with the predictable. PRICES @ 4:00 PM 10 yr note: -2/32 (6 bp) 2.59% +1 bp 5 yr note: -3/32 (9 bp) 1.41% +2 bp 2 Yr note: -1/32 (3 bp) 0.35% +1 bp 30 yr bond: -3/32 (9 bp) 3.63% unch Libor Rates: 1 mo 0.191%; 3 mo 0.268%; 6 mo 0.404%; 1 yr 0.688% 30 yr FNMA 4.0 Aug: 103.25 +2 bp (-20 bp frm 9:30) 15 yr FNMA 3.5 Aug: 104.19 +31 bp (-18 bp frm 9:30) 30 yr GNMA 4.0 Aug: 104.00 +35 bp (-14 bp frm 9:30) Dollar/Yen: 99.37 +0.41 yen Dollar/Euro: $1.3066 -$0.0031 Gold: $1283.50 +3.60 Crude Oil: $106.16 +$1.25 DJIA: 15,464,30 +3.38 NASDAQ: 3600.08 +21.78 S&P 500: 1680.19 +5.17
Posted on: Sun, 14 Jul 2013 14:31:19 +0000
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