8:00pm 01/25 Update finished past 9:30: As I stated before while I was out, the Blizzard Watches have been upgraded to Blizzard Warnings! A State of Emergency is probably next.. All of the models have been trending towards a monster blizzard of historical proportions slamming into the region Monday and Tuesday.. Eurotripping my snowfall amounts: The models have been trending Juno much like Nemo two years ago.. That has definitely had an impact on my forecasting as a result.. Another similarity that Juno has with Nemo is me forecasting amounts in advance, then having the NWS catch up on their next advisory.. With their latest advisory, the NWS matched my morning forecast of 20-30.. So will I again increase my amounts?? As I say when I play Texas Holdem and get a great hand, yes I am going to raise it up!! I am now calling for a general 24-36 for much of the region!! You read that right, 2-3!! This will be the highest amount of snow I have ever forecast or seen forecast for the area!! It would also fuifill my 2015 Winter Snowfall projection by itself! If these amounts do hold up, we can be talking about our biggest snowfall ever for plenty of areas.. It would shatter NYCs record.. It would also beat the highest amount of snow Ive ever experienced in my town (24, Nemo), but we would have to hit the high end in LIs snow bank between Huntington and Rocky Point, or Melville to Brookhaven.. That record is 33 also courtesy of Nemo.. I am expecting that area to be Junos winner as well.. So basically its 24-36 for most of LI, 20-30 for the 5 boroughs of NYC, and 18-24 for areas north and west.. Some snow bands can be capable of dropping 2-4+ an hour.. Combined with gusty winds, there will be whiteout conditions (zero visibility) and some snow drifts exceeding 6! Temps will be in the low 20s so the snow will be powdery and light, which can drift pretty easily.. It just wont be the best snowball making snow.. My reason for further increasing my snow totals from 20-30 to 24-36 is because the Euro Model has been trending upward and has been the most aggressive.. The Euro Model has behaved the same way with Nemo and was the frontrunner there also.. The Euro Model winded up winning the Nemo battle and I expect it to do the same with Juno too.. The GFS has trended back a bit and several of the pro stations like TWC and Accuweather have chosen to follow them.. Caveat Nix: There is a small chance that some dry air could work in the back end of Juno (like what Nemo did to NYC), it could bomb out a bit later (like Iola did), or it could track further east.. If this does in fact happen, NYC and areas north and west would see lower totals.. But LI, especially Suffolk would still get hammered by this storm.. Id say 14+ is pretty much a guarantee at this point regardless of the variables; which could still bring us to a standstill.. If this scenario does pan out, I will be the first to let everyone know.. But for now, I am sticking with my forecast posted above.. Wind: I expect maximum sustained winds possibly to tropical storm force (>39mph) but there should be plenty of sustained winds from 25mph-38mph.. Top gusts can knock on the door of hurricane force (>74mph) but we should see a few other gusts in the 50mph-70mph!! The strongest winds as always will be on the south shore and east end, where some coastal flooding is possible.. Timing & Traffic: Light snow should move into the area as the initial Alberta Clipper passes to our south; putting us on the northern fringe of things.. This will take place Monday morning.. As everyone should know by now, the Alberta Clipper will emerge off the coast and hook northeastward towards us.. When this happens, the Clipper will rapidly intensify.. It will also slow down (as Clippers are usually fast movers) and might even stall out.. We can thank the departing Iola for this as she is still in the Canadian Maritimes, kind of blocking the path.. But unlike with Iola, we have a fresh shot of cold air thanks in part to the Clipper which became Juno earlier today.. All this will pretty much cement an all snow event, and a heavy one at that.. Anyway, snow will be light and scattered for much of the day on Monday.. I then expect it to pick up in intensity as schools are wrapping up their days.. Hopefully all afterschool activities will be cancelled and everyone can get out early.. Juno will start to bomb out around the PM commute with the intensity of both the snow and wind picking up drastically in a short time.. This is where I ask everyone reading this to take a half day or leave as early as possible.. Because if you get caught in this PM commute, it can go from 30-45 minutes, to several hours.. It is worth mentioning that Blizzard conditions are expected later Monday evening into Monday night and anyone caught on the roads during this time will likely be stranded in whiteout conditions.. The heavy snow and wind will last through the overnight Monday into Tuesday before lightening up and tapering off sometime Tuesday night.. Closures: The State of Emergency and City/State Press Conferences should come soon.. I expect mass transit (buses, LIRR) to shut down Monday night and flights to be grounded as well.. I also wouldnt rule out certain bridges closing as well.. If you have a flight scheduled for Monday night, Tues, or Wed, if you can reschedule it to Monday morning, that would be the only shot you have at landing or taking off at the area airports; it might be too late for this but its always worth a shot.. It will also be crowded but it is better than being laid over for 3 days.. I expect NYC schools to be closed at least one day (Tues) if they get below 20 of snow and closed for 2 days (Tues, Wed) if they get more than 24.. I expect LI schools to cancel afterschool activities tomorrow and possibly get out even earlier.. I expect them all to be closed Tues & Wed.. If we get widespread 24 amounts, a two hour delay could be possible Thursday.. If we get widespread 30-36 amounts, they might even be closed Thurs again as well as Friday as there might be another chance for additional snow.. Private schools and colleges can be closed 2 to 4 days regardless.. Many business will be closed 1 and probably 2 days as well.. My school closing guidelines are just a guess and you should always check with the district or on News12, Newsday, etc for the official word.. The window for bread & milk is closing: 110 was a madhouse all day.. BJs and Walmart are by far the worst though the line for BJs gas wasnt too bad.. As far as bread, milk, and eggs go, the best places to get the essentials & non perishables would be Target and Costco.. Both had manageable lines though the warehouse clubs are probably closed now.. Final Thoughts: Well its almost time for the big one! This could be the biggest snowstorm we had for the region on record! It is also a life threatening storm.. You do not want to be stranded out there because not only will roads be impassible, but the storm can also be disorienting if you decide to venture out on foot.. A good rule of thumb is if the LIRR shuts down, then driving is not a good idea.. I think their criteria is 10 btw.. Power outages will be possible so make sure you took as many precautions and got as many essentials/non perishables as possible and prepare for a minimum of 2 to 3 days without being able to leave your house safely.. The less people on the road in life threatening conditions like this, the less first responders have to risk their lives to save you and the snow crews can treat the roads quicker.. I will post later tonight (a brief report for once lol) if there are any significant changes.. Otherwise I will be by the computer for the balance of the day tomorrow following the radar on a regular basis.. I will let everyone know when shit starts getting real!! Lastly, I have been tagged in many groups and many others have asked questions or advice about the storm.. I will do my best to answer them all in a timely matter.. Thanks for following The Norris Report! Thanks for all the likes, shares, kudos, comments, and questions.. Please be careful, stay safe out there, and continue to keep it here for the latest, most accurate, timely amateur forecasts out there.. TNR keeps its readers ahead of the pros (I havent said that in awhile haha)..
Posted on: Mon, 26 Jan 2015 02:35:26 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015