9:35 PM 11/23 - Derailing the Hype Train - Good evening all! With a storm possible on the busiest travel day of the year, many are taking advantage of fear and worry and sharing crazy accumulation maps already. While chances of a white Turkey Day are going up, we do not like to discuss accumulation numbers outside of 48 hours. Instead, read the previous updates on our page to see the several possibilities. The atmosphere is a chaotic system, so specific and detailed forecasts over 72 hours away have little scientific merit. *Outside of 5 Days from a storm, we will usually discuss general patterns, favorability, but shy away from mentioning individual storms. *3-5 Days away from a storm, we may mention storm track, precipitation scenarios with probabilities of each outcome. *2-3 Days away, we will try and nail down two possible scenarios with probabilities and the impacts of both outcomes. *1-2 Days away, if we have the confidence we may issue an accumulation forecast with numbers and timing on what to expect *Within one day, we will try and get as much detail as we can on the system, highlight timing, impacts, accumulation, temperatures, etc. Right now, we see 3 distinct possibilities for this storm on Wednesday still, outlined on our main site and in the previous post. We will refine this down to 2 scenarios tomorrow, and then try to issue a deterministic forecast (with bust probabilities) by Monday evening or Tuesday morning if we still think a storm looks likely. Things could change by then, but the trend now is towards some precipitation, likely starting as rain. Well have more details coming soon! Good night, and stay tuned for Mondays updates. (Forecaster Mike)
Posted on: Mon, 24 Nov 2014 02:36:20 +0000
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