A BROAD AREA OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK - TopicsExpress

A BROAD AREA OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AT MAJURO AND POHNPEI FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS STRETCH WESTWARD ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN MICRONESIA BUT REMAIN NORTH OF KOSRAE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI HELPS TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION OVER POHNPEI AND KEEP THE SHOWERS NORTH OF KOSRAE. EXPECT THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE TO DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND BRING LIKE CONDITIONS TO KOSRAE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CIRCULATION DRIFTS FURTHER WEST AND WEAKENS. ALL OF THE MODELS DEPICT AN OVERALL WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION DEVELOPING NEAR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE CIRCULATION FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS40 WITH A MUCH WETTER PATTERN OVER BOTH LOCATIONS. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DECREASING SHOWERS TO ISOLATED BY SATURDAY AT POHNPEI AND MAJURO AND BY SUNDAY AT KOSRAE FOR NOW BUT THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS MORE ACCURATE. IN EITHER CASE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

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