A few things to chat up about the forecast as we head into the weekend... 1) I have not seen such extensive, intense, and long-lived forecast for blocking signatures since the late 1970s. Every model run keeps spitting out the same vast -AO signature that has extensions in the -EPO, +PNA, and -NAO positions. Given what kind of weather the nation went through in that era, I think everyone needs to have some extra preparation for how the month, and the upcoming winter, may turn out. 2) There has been considerable hype/claptrap about Typhoon Nuri and its influence on U.S. weather. Here is the deal: even without a typhoon injection (which was a big player in the 1976 November pattern), we would still be looking at a highly amplified 500MB flow, with a much colder result along and east of the Continental Divide. Note the moisture connection along the International Dateline associated with tropical forcing/Madden Julian Oscillation percolation. Also note the Kelvin wave across western Indonesia that will move toward, and bolster, the lift/force quotient in the western and central Pacific Ocean. As this feature boosts energy and moisture into the sub-Aleutian mAk vortex (one of three Arctic vortices in the Northern Hemisphere), we will see continued high-latitude ridge formation. 3) Climatology of such ridge formations tells me three things: one, that a cAk vortex formation will take shape over Ontario and/or Quebec (favored spot); two, that the Great Plains, Midwest and Northeast will have a heck of a time securing any milder weather for at least the next two weeks; and three, it is highly likely that the southern branch energy will interact with the polar and Arctic jet stream to produce a significant storm. Most likely track will be through Dixie and along the East Coast. While odds would favor mostly rain in the southern and eastern tier of states, the snow cover will likely get down into the Tennessee Valley and Appalachia. And I would not rule out a start or change/end scenario for snow vs. rain along the Interstate 95 corridor above Richmond VA on November 16 - 17. 4) One of the best free sources for weather model depictions is Levi Cowans Tropical Tidbits site. Have a great weekend, everyone...watch for the WEATHERAmerica Newsletter on Saturday evening!
Posted on: Fri, 07 Nov 2014 22:22:26 +0000
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