A great comment that someone had posted about what is happening now in the Ukraine - Russia wont shut off the overland pipelines to Europe, not just for economic reasons, but I do not think any of the major powers in Europe want to destabilise Europe. This includes the Russians, the Germans, the French and the British. This also includes the US. Lest you forget there is also plan B between Western Europe and Russia ... There is also Plan C, which is the Trans Caspian pipe line. So we can agree this web -- including the one that flows through Ukraine -- of energy flow in one way or another touches regions around the Black Sea. So lets ask ourselves some hypothetical questions: What would happen if tomorrow Ukraine or Georgia or Azerbaijan or even Turkey decides to go rogue and cut off pipes? Regardless of how one may feel about those glorious Oil Companies, its your average citizen at the end of the pipe and everyone will be hurt in one way or another (the 1% and the 99%)- an energy shock of the same magnitude suffered during the 70s. And who is best placed to protect those oil pipes right now? The Russians of course. Now the second scenario: The current Ukrainian government, who in my view is illegitimate, have the intention of not renewing the lease for the Crimean bases in 2017. Throwing the Russians off the the Crimea does not mean those pipelines does not need to be protected, that need will still remain. So the question is whom does the Ukrainians have in mind to be the next guardians of the pipeline? I think they have the Americans in mind because there is no one else with a warm water navy of sufficient mass to protect those energy installations. Stability of Europe does not imply stability of Russia. As your link states, the life blood of Russia flows through Ukraine. If anything were to happen to those pipes, (lets say a Chechen terrorist attack on them at multiple points, or even carefully timed accidents), and you would have Russia and Gazprom by their testicles. Once the Crimea is lost to the Russians, they also lose the right to run their local protection racket in the region. They will in very quick order lose Gazprom and will be forced to open up their oil fields to western commercial extraction and management. Would the West do a better job at this than what they have done by themselves so far? The details will be different but the oligarchs and the plutocrats will still be there. The essential outcome will still be the same.
Posted on: Wed, 05 Mar 2014 06:50:56 +0000