A lot of people are advocating for Nigeria to break up - first of all, ...this is what you get when you allow yourself to be ruled by fools continually. The desire to break away is a natural outcome of very horrible leadership and a lasting feeling of disenfranchisement in the general populace. Let us assume that Nigeria does break up, .....what do you think will happen? What do you imagine that you will have?? This is how I see it and what I honestly believe will happen; 1) The most vociferous and rambunctious of the sections of the nation are our South-eastern Igbo brethren. Biafra will be a land-locked nation that encompasses the current states of Anambra, Enugu, Imo, Abia and Ebonyi. The people of Akwa-Ibom, Rivers and Cross River State will NEVER consider joining together to form a nation! In essence, Biafra will be a nation within a nation. And all that trading which they love to do? Most other newly independent sections will be all too willing to kick out Igbo traders and so Onitsha and Umuahia will be filled with traders and fewer buyers and what is more - all that imported merchandise and raw material will have to pass through another country to get to Biafra! So, ....with this in mind, tell me how viable this Biafra nation would be? 2) The Ngbati-ngbati people of the Southwest - the Yoruba people also like to talk about an Oduduwa nation. Here is a part of the nation where Akintola backstabbed his political patron Awolowo and in the process set the entire region ablaze in acrimonious violence and destruction! Ogbomosho wont allow Ibadan to dominate. Ibadan cant stay with a leader for more than a season. Abeokuta has 5 kings in one city. Ondo and Ijesha will fight to death because they are both heady. Modakeke is an eternal enemy of their neighbour and fraternal twin - Ile-ife. Ijebu and Ekiti are not talking or marrying each other. Alafin of Oyo thinks Oni of Ife is an ass and wont cooperate! Phew!!! ....what a nation! By the time they are finished Odua nation will comprise of 18 city-sized nations or more!! 3) The Northerners often mouth off on the creation of an Arewa Nation. That such a nation would be landlocked and arid is pretty obvious. Beyond that however, ....it has become pretty obvious that an Arewa nation will be limited to the current states of Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Kastina, Kebbi, Jigawa, Yobe, Borno, Gombe and Bauchi. This States are mostly arid with few natural resources. Kaduna will be split into two along the river Kaduna banks - southern and northern Kaduna! It is pretty clear that Southern Kaduna, Plateau state, Adamawa and a large chunk of Niger state will fight to death not to be lumped into an Arewa nation! Adamawa and Taraba will also do the same. In essence, Arewa will become another Sahel republic with a huge dependency on EU aid and the vagaries of the weather, just like Niger and Mali! Just how viable and promising that is is for you to decide... 4) The Niger Delta minorities have of recent started advocating for their own nation, no doubt fueled by perceived oil riches. Of course, the Niger-delta is not comprised of one monolithic ethnicity. There are the Ijaws, the Itsekiris, the Isoko, the Urhobo and a few others, many of whom are always at each others neck for good measure. There is no better evidence of what would happen in a Niger-Delta nation than to watch and observe what has been going on there for the past 10 years. The Oil royalties and the oil money simply does not get to the people - it does not matter how much the oil companies and FGN pours into the region. This is because the men at the top and the leaders behave precisely like the current Nigerian leaders - actually they are worse, ....much worse! Eventually, the nation will be no better than DRC. It will be war after war endlessly until there is nothing left! 5) The Middle belt of Nigeria, though not a region known to agitate for their own republic, is comprised of several different people of varying ethnicity and language. This region in its vast diversity is also what is called the food basket of Nigeria. A break-up of Nigeria would mean that each of these groups would have no choice but to try and determine their own political future either as stand-alone nations or as a united group (most unlikely!) The Middlebelt comprises of Kogi State, Nassarawa, Kwara, Benue, Taraba and even parts of Niger state - they are an eclectic mix and potpourri of ethnic groups which make Nigeria so diverse and beautiful and yet which cannot be easily subjugated by any of the other groups vying to form a separate republic. In this region we have the Idoma, the Igala, the Egbira, the Gwari, Nupe, Tiv, Igede, Jukun, Mambilla, Ndoro and so on and so forth - I could never mention it all! If you have an easy solution for these area of the nation, please let me know.... 6) The people of Cross River and Akwa Ibom state are mostly quiet but that is not to be confused with a lack of aspiration or determination on their part. They will NEVER go with an Igbo led secession. They will rather be on their own! These region is made up of the Efik of Calabar and region, ...and others such as Ibibio, Anang, Oron and Obolo, Ejagham, Bekwarra extraction. I am also certain that there is a lot more diversity in this region that I have failed to mention. The diversity in this region will soon be a cause for some ethnic leader to start calling for further break-away! Some will fight and resist what they will call Efik domination and thus there will be no end to the agitation.... All in all, .....I know that many agitators love to adopt the simplistic model of Nigeria being made up of three (3) major components, ...nothing could be further from the truth! Nigeria is a very complex and diverse nation that is made up of more than 250 ethnic groups! The nations problems does not stem from this diversity much rather, its size and diversity is the source of the appreciable richness, wealth and prominence accorded the nation by the international community. The source of Nigerias problem is a very small, ....actually a very tiny group of people, numbering less than 5000, who accord themselves the responsibility of leadership and the right to rule! These people whom I often call Oligarchs are not of any one particular ethnic group or religion - they simply use ethnicity and religion to manipulate the people and galvanize a followership so as to stay relevant! What binds the Oligarchs together is not common ancestry or language, but rather a mutual desire and need for inordinate self-aggrandizement, power and control! They have come to realize that as long as they cooperate among themselves and rotate influence, they can continually maintain their status, enrich themselves and their scions madly at the nations expense without the risk of losing power and influence! What Nigerians need to realize is that your neighbour is not your enemy (he/she is as much of a victim, just like you), ...your enemies and oppressors are the Oligarchs - the power brokers whose names we always see rotating in the corridors of power! Your enemies are the ones who steal your money, your future and your inheritance under your nose while preaching to you about ethnicity and separation! Put plainly, .....your enemies are the leaders, the governors, the senators, the representatives, the god-father, the political big-wigs and so on - they are the ones who mortgage your future and send their own children abroad to private school! If nothing at all, Nigerians should learn from the recent history of Yugoslavia - a once sizable great country that has been broken and smashed into smithereens in recent history! Sadly, none of the Republics that were created as a result of that fragmentation has fared better - not even close to the original nations prominence! Today, out of the former Yugoslavian nation we have several small, nonviable nations - eight (8) Socialist Republics have so far declared independence (some of them are so pathetic and shaky that it is laughable). The countries are - SR Bosnia and Herzegovina, SR Croatia, SR Macedonia, SR Montenegro, SR Slovenia, and SR Serbia, SR Kosovo and the autonomous region of Vojvodina! Millions have died and given their lives and all for the pathetic state of affair we have in the region today! Rather than seeking the disintegration of Nigeria, we should seek to remove the thorn in our flesh and emancipate ourselves from the political subjugation that has been foisted on the nation for decades through the careful manipulation and design of the ruling class (the oligarchs). We must strive to build a nation where there is a Constitution that is forged in the true interest of the people. A nation where there is equality at all levels and the peoples interest is the driving force. Where there is true national identity, true political determination and true development fostered by an implementation of truly progressive ideals and principles. What Nigeria needs above all is true leadership that will destroy and pulverize the high places of corruption and decadence that has eaten up the nation, thereby fostering a culture of integrity, justice, equality and enviable economic development. Just my two cents by Olu Ike Aminu.( Real name kept secret because we always shoot the messenger)
Posted on: Fri, 07 Mar 2014 21:12:55 +0000
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