A quick look at tonights models suggest much variance in handling of ex TS Bertha as you might expect at a week away or more. Certainly GFS and ECM are keen to drag it towards the UK sometime between Sunday and Tuesday but the detail is so sketchy as to be meaningless at this stage. In the meantime we maintain a controlling trough/low pressure out to the west with fronts and features coming at us from the south-west. The effects for my area regarding rainfall could be very variable again as is the natue of showery rainfall. The 564 dam line gets close the south-east on Thursday so the extra heat aloft and presence of frontal activity could mean some significant rain around that time. Fww, the BBC automated forecast for Alton has rain falling (always light) at some point during all of the next 9 days. That simply wont happen based on my experience of those projections as some days will be dry and others may well have heavy/thundery rain! From a forecasters point of view the next 10 days will be interesting ;)
Posted on: Sun, 03 Aug 2014 20:52:11 +0000
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