A sobering and informative read on the the causes and interests of both Israels leadership and Hamas in the current conflict. Short version: This is about regional realignment and the Muslim Brotherhood and includes factors that lend themselves toward a longer hot conflict than is typical for Israel and its neighbors. Sobering summary (and relevant to the lambasting Kerry is taking from many directions this weekend): Unhappily for the Obama administration, the best way for the U.S. to hasten the arrival of a durable cease fire in Gaza is to promise a more robust and hawkish policy in the rest of the region. The Israelis will be more willing to make concessions on a Gaza cease fire if they believe that the U.S. will back them more effectively against Iran, and the Saudis and Egyptians are more likely to give ground in Gaza if the U.S. offers real support in the rest of the region. This is the opposite of the way much of the left and the press understands how the Middle East works, but the new Middle East is a more complicated place than it used to be. The battle between Sunni Arabs and Israelis is no longer the most important issue on the table for key Arab governments as well as for Israel. While that old conflict has not disappeared, it has been eclipsed by the new conflict between a resurgent Iran and the leading Sunni Arab states.
Posted on: Sun, 27 Jul 2014 20:39:15 +0000
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