AAP has done amazingly well in Delhi elections. But can they win 100-150 seats in the LokSabha in 2014? Vadapalli Adithya, A cricket tragic, Political commentator, Computer Scientist 100-150 is too ambitious a number. Remember, the BJP in its first ever election in 1984 won only two seats. Increased it to 85 in 1989 ; crossed the 150 mark in 1996 and finally hit 182 in 1998 and 1999. It really shows for a party to grow overnight is really hard. But I would say AAP has a chance to grow much faster than the BJP. The decline of Congress and the absolute lack of leadership opens up a space which the AAP can occupy if they are smart enough ( which they have shown to be). I would hope that they cross the 25 mark in this election. The optimist in me says if they are lucky, they can get 40. If they get to this number - I would believe it would be at the expense of the Congress. Let us see electorally, how they can achieve this. Their catchment areas are the following states: 1) Delhi: They would hope to win 5 out of the 7 seats at least. 2) Harayana: Winning around 3 seats would be an achievement. Harayana politics is caste based mainly. 3) Punjab: Getting into the network of the Akalis would be hard. But, they can challenge a few Congress seats. 4) Uttar Pradesh: I think Uttar Pradesh has a potential to be the state which bring them maximum dividends. Seats like Kanpur, Lucknow they might sniff a chance. But, MM Joshi contesting from Kanpur, it is not going to be easy. Ghaziabad is another place where they would fancy their chances. Especially with Shazia Ilmi contesting. If Kejriwal contests from Varanasi - he may well loose that seat to Modi but, may create a ripple effect in the rest of Poorvanchal. Western UP, I think would be beyond AAP for this election. 5) Maharashtra (probably a couple seats in Mumbai): Mumbai is not going to be as easy as Delhi. Mumbai politics is dominated by Shiv Sena and MNS. To break their network of identity politics would be really hard. Even Pune and Nashik are really hard for the AAP. Also, they dont have a great Marathi orator in their team which doesnt work in their favour. But, I would say- if they pluck two seats, perhaps Meera Sanyal from South Mumbai and Medha Patkar, It would an achievement. 6) Karnataka (a couple in Bangalore): South Bangalore is quite hard - with Nandan Nilekani from Congress contesting there and BJPs Ananth Kumar being the opponent. I am a bit skeptical about the other seats. But, in the south if there is any city where AAP may have an impact it would be Bangalore. 7) Gujarat (a couple of traditonal Congress seats): I believe the aggressive assault made by Kejriwal on Modi would hurt the Congress the most in Gujarat. They are filling up the space of an opposition which the Congress had forfieted in Gujarat since past two to two and a half decades. To make an impact in the rest of India, is really hard without any organizational base. So in these states they made end up with (5 + 3 + 2 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 2 = 17) Even if we are optimistic. If they can pull up a few more surprises in say Kerala, Rajasthan, MP and do slightly better in these states they can push their tally to 25 - 30. That would be a remarkable beginning. To get to 40 odd it has to be something spectacular. They have to hope UP would help them. Kumar Vishwas may loose in Amethi to Rahul Gandhi but, can he influence a few pockets around the constituency? Can Salman Khurshid loose? If they have to grow in UP - it is the traditional Congress seats which they have to target as they are the weak link right now. Nevertheless, they have made these elections just that much more spicy and interesting.
Posted on: Thu, 20 Mar 2014 05:32:56 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015