ABML CNX Weekly Techno-Derivatives Snapshot (12/01/2015 – 16/01/2015) : Dear Friends, Following is the Analysis on Several Indices including Nifty, Bank Nifty, All F&O Stocks, Small Cap & Mid Cap along with VIX & USDINR and Derivatives Outlook in addition to Global Markets outlook including Crude. Subdued Global Market Sentiments following fall in Oil prices leading to contagion impact on other asset classes, possibility of a Russian Downgrade, Euro falling to a 9-year low, fears of Greece exiting the Euro Zone due to its own political chaos had led to intense selling pressure across all asset classes globally. On the whole, it was a highly volatile week with Nifty retesting its crucial 8060 support & even rebounding upto 8300 zone at the end of the week eventually ending the week 1.3% in the negative. On the Domestic Front, the result season has kick-started on a good note with Infosys announcing a good set of numbers. Sectorially, All the sectors faced the selling pressure except defensives IT & FMCG which supported the Index from lower levels. Metals turned out to be the highest loser witnessing a cut of 4% followed by Capital Goods, Banks, Power & Realty losing by 2% each & Oil & Gas and Pharma too suffering minor losses. On the Global Front, Major Global Markets including Nikkei & Dow Jones ended the week with a 0.7-1% cut apiece while Indian Markets as well as Chinese Markets witnessed a cut of 1.5-2% each. US Dollar has continued to strengthen past 92 levels which is signaling caution for emerging market currencies & commodities world-wide. CNX Nifty (CMP 8284): Last Week, Nifty faced Volume based selling pressure from higher levels across all sectors & retested 8060 support however bounced back to close around 8280 ending the week 1.3% in the red. Going Forward, Nifty would face resistance around 8370 zone which is 78.2% retracement of the down-move between 8445 (5th Jan) & 8065 (7th Jan). If 8370 is not crossed, expect retest of support zone 8180-8200. Breach of 8180 would signal a down-move upto 7980-8020 zone. Only on a cross-over & sustenance above 8370, Index could move upto 8480-8520 zone. Breadth of the markets remained negative on Higher Volumes. RSI, Stochastic & MACD are placed above its averages on daily charts while being placed below its averages on Weekly charts indicating some profit booking from higher levels. Hence Range for the coming week could be 8180-8370. On the Derivatives Front, NIFTY saw OI reduction of nearly 19%with price recovering from low, still closing negative by 1%; Options Front: highest OI across 8000-8100 PE with total OI 66-54 lac shares respectively, on CE front 8400 CE 46.18 Lakh Shares; expected range 8050-8450. BANKNIFTY (CMP 18637): Bank Nifty faced selling pressure on rises & closed 2% negative for the past week. Expect Index to face resistance around 18900 & till 18,900 is not crossed, it can retest supports of 18,200-18,250. Only on a cross-over & sustenance above 18,900, Index can witness accelerated momentum upto 19,300-19,400. On the Derivatives Front, BANKNIFTY saw OI addition of 8% with price down by 2%; Options Front: highest OI 18000 PE with total OI 6.02 lac shares respectively, on CE front 19000, 19500 CE 4.6 and 3.4 Lakh Shares; expected range 18150-19300. Going forward, Movement of the Markets would be dictated by IIP & CPI Inflation data to be announced on 12th Jan (Monday), WPI data on 14th Jan (Wednesday), India Trade Data on 15th Jan (Thursday), developments in Greece, movement of USDINR & Crude Price Oil. Q3FY15 results of Indian corporates slated to be announced starting January 2015 would be on the Investors radar & close watch would be on the Management tone which would lead to a revision in the future earnings forecasts. Key Results to be announced in the coming week: 13th Jan: IndusInd Bank, DCB Bank; 14th Jan: Yes Bank, LIC Housing; 15th Jan: TCS, Bajaj Auto, Federal Bank; 16th Jan: Axis Bank, Wipro, DHFL; 17th Jan: M&M Finance; 19th Jan: HUL, Mind Tree, Gruh Finance, Info Edge, Tata Sponge. USDINR (CMP 62.33): Despite global markets witnessing turbulence, USD INR has stabilized in the past week & has closed at its highest level of 62.3 since May. This rise in INR was on account of hopes of a future Euro-area stimulus which may be announced along with continued dollar selling by exporters & banks. Rebound in equity markets during the latter part of the week also aided the Rupee. Even the 10-Year benchmark bond yield fell to 7.84. Now Going Forward, USDINR will face resistance around 63.50. Till 63.50 is not crossed, it can further fall upto 61.20 zone. However, if it crosses & sustains above 63.50, it will then move later towards 66-67. BRENT CRUDE ($ 50.11): Crude prices continued to soften upto 48$ i.e. 6 Year Low on account of further strengthening of Dollar & has marked a fall of over 40% in just over 2 months. It can still dip upto 46-47 zone but has approached extremely oversold zone on daily & weekly charts & hence if 46 is held, a pullback upto 58-60 cannot be ruled out. But overall from 60 zone, selling pressure would re-emerge. Even the Dollar Index (CMP 91.94) has approached overbought zone & has chances of retesting 86-87 zone which could lead to some lower level support buying / short covering in Crude Oil prices. DOW JONES (CMP 17,737): Dow Jones has closed 0.65% lower past week amidst high volatility on account of profit booking from higher levels. Now Going Forward, Dow is continuously facing resistance at higher levels around 17,950. Till 17,950 is not crossed, it can retest supports of 17,400-17,450. Below 17,400, fall could get accelerated upto 16,800. Only on a cross-over & sustenance above 17,950, Index can witness short-covering upto 18,200-18,250. NSE Midcap: (CMP 12583) NSE Mid-cap CMP 12,583 closed 1% negative for the week forming a negative divergence on weekly charts & hence resistance at higher levels would be witnessed. Till 12,750 is not crossed, it can retest supports of 12,400-12,350. Below 12,350, fall could get accelerated upto 12,000. Only on a cross-over & sustenance above 12,750, Index can witness short-covering upto 12,700-12,750. BSE Small Cap (CMP 11,198): BSE Small-Cap CMP 11,198 closed 1% negative for the week forming a negative divergence on weekly charts & hence resistance at higher levels would be witnessed. . Till 11,350 is not crossed, it can retest supports of 10,800-10,850. Below 10,850, fall could get accelerated upto 10,400. Only on a cross-over & sustenance above 11,350, Index can witness short-covering upto 11,700-11,750. VIX (15.8196): VIX spiked upto 19 levels following the equity markets under pressure, however closed around 15.80 with a rebound in the equity markets. Going forward, till VIX holds above 13.50, it can move upto 20-22 zone. Below 13.50, VIX could witness a crack upto 11-10 zone. On the derivatives front, Post expiry, • FII’s for the past week have turned net buyers in the cash & derivatives markets while DII’s have stayed Net Buyers for the 4th consecutive week gone by. • On a Weekly basis In Index Futures FIIs were Net Sellers to the tune of ` 3453 Cr with an open interest decrease of around `3250 Cr which indicates Long Unwinding in Index Futures by FIIs. • Nifty Futures have closed at a 28 points premium as against a 72 point premium for the previous week. Cumulative FII Derivatives Stats from 01/01/2015 to 09/01/2015: Index Futures: -3455 Cr; Index Options: +3539 Cr; Stock Futures: +1343 Cr; Stock Options: -25 Cr Cash Market: FII: -2659 Cr; DII: +1894 Cr. For detailed (PDF FORMAT) Stock-Specific Techno-Derivatives Analysis on all the F&O Stocks, Kindly send SMS with your Name, City, Profession (along with Designation) & Email id. Copy Pasting the above Report would lead to legal action. Warm Regards, Sudeep Shah, 9320056400
Posted on: Sun, 11 Jan 2015 07:38:57 +0000
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