ABOUT MONDAY -- IS THERE A BLIZZARD HEAD FOR NYC LONG ISLAND & NEW ENGLAND ? MAYBE .... in order to fully understand this post it may be necessary for you to review the blog update which I made on late Thursday night early Friday morning. wxrisk/mccoy-kirk-spock-jan24-jan-26-feb-1/ During the overnight hours the early Saturday morning European model came out with a particularly impressive solution with regard to the Manitoba Mauler (MM) weather system which COULD develop into a major East Coast snowstorm ...for someone. As I stated in the blog.... MM types of Alberta clippers are inherently dangerous and very dynamic because the only way for a system from Manitoba to reach the middle Atlantic coast is for the entire upper air feature to develop a negative tilt. When you have that sort of development over the East Coast with abundant moisture you almost always get a surface Low development. Sometimes this coastal Low may form too far o ffshore and we spend the day looking at satellite pictures saying .. . wow look at that...if only it was 200 miles closer to the coast !. But the early Saturday morning European model does not show that. SEE IMAGES ... This model shows a powerful southern stream system that is is neutrally tilted over the Mississippi delta... that develops a severe negative tilt on Monday as the coastal Low begins to form. The coastal Low closes off or separate itself from the main Jetstream flow which allows for the surface Low to stall for many hours off the New Jersey Coast. This results in extremely heavy snow and high winds from Boston down to New York City and coastal New Jersey. The European model which producing a wide band of 12 to 18 inches of snow in this area. SEE IMAGE #2 . The European model has significant support from the European ensemble but that doesnt necessarily mean that the European solution is going to be correct . There are still a couple different possibilities here. One possibility would be for the coastal Low to form somewhat further to the south which should bring significant snow into the Delmarva and possibly the Chesapeake Bay area. Another possibility would be for the system to develop exactly as the European model is showing but it doe so further to the east so that only Cape Cod and the far eastern areas of Long Island would see heavy snow.
Posted on: Sat, 24 Jan 2015 13:25:21 +0000
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